{"id":16208,"date":"2025-03-25T10:27:19","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T10:27:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/prismua.org\/?p=16208"},"modified":"2025-03-25T10:27:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T10:27:19","slug":"english-heading-towards-the-new-level-indo-ukrainian-relations-in-the-era-of-shaky-geopolitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/prismua.org\/en\/english-heading-towards-the-new-level-indo-ukrainian-relations-in-the-era-of-shaky-geopolitics\/","title":{"rendered":"Heading Towards the New Level: Indo-Ukrainian Relations in the Era of Shaky Geopolitics"},"content":{"rendered":"

2024 has become the year of many geopolitical shifts, with nearly half of the world population casting ballots, the highest number of conflicts since WWII, the further rise of AI, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, among others. <\/strong><\/p>\n

All this, together with Russia\u2019s aggressive behaviour vis-\u00e0-vis Europe, the Russian war against Ukraine and the international agenda of the new US administration, has been reshaping strategic alliances and contributing to global instabilities. With China trying to get space Russia and the US released in different parts of the world and the EU looking for a new geostrategic role, the world enters a period of turbulence or, as this paper notes, \u201cshaky geopolitics\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

For bilateral relations between Ukraine and India, 2024 became the year of a big positive political shift with the first-ever visit of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Ukraine, which resulted in the number of signed agreements and increased interest in cooperation at least from the side of Ukraine. <\/span><\/p>\n

Yet both countries should still find the best place for each other in their international agenda. One of the steps to achieve this goal is to perform what was agreed upon during the meetings and negotiations over the last years and to search for \u201cislands of stability\u201d in the cooperation between the two states. Economic (agriculture and pharmaceuticals), security (nuclear security and tech cooperation), and cultural exchanges and cooperation on the UN reform look prosperous for the bilateral relations of the two countries during the times of \u201cshaky geopolitics\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

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INTRODUCTION <\/span><\/h1>\n

Ukraine and India share a long history of bilateral relations with both ups and downs during the last thirty years and a profound cooperation during the Soviet period (<\/span>see <\/span><\/i>Ukraine \u2014 India: End of Free Fall of Soviet Legacy?)<\/span>.<\/span><\/a> Since the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine, India has preserved strategic neutrality, yet seeing itself as \u201cnot neutral, but on the side of peace\u201d<\/span> (as Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi noted during his historic visit to Ukraine on August 23, 2024). <\/span><\/p>\n

The year 2024 has become a landmark for Ukraine-India relations with multiple meetings between the leaders of the countries, new bilateral agreements, and, most notably, the first-ever visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine (August 2024). <\/span><\/p>\n

2024 also witnessed major geopolitical shifts, including the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the further rise of AI, and elections in key countries, including Donald Trump elected as the 47<\/span>th<\/span> United States President. The policies and statements of the new US administration have received mixed reactions from its European partners. Recently, the U.S. announced that it would stop the military aid supply to Ukraine, which was later resumed, but the decision still may influence the situation on the frontline. The US president has also announced 25% tariffs on goods from its partner countries, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span> Washington has also been waging a trade war with China, where Beijing has already announced retaliatory tariffs.<\/span> US President Donald Trump announced the possibility of reciprocal tariffs on US imports from some other countries, including India, which might be implemented from April 2, 2025<\/span>. According to the media reports, the Indian government is working with the US counterparts to \u201celiminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers and improve trade\u201d<\/span>. In parallel, China is coming as a more resolute actor in the world area, trying to get the space Russia and the US release in different parts of the world, demonstrating a more assertive position against some Asian states and pretending to be the voice of the Global South. The EU member states and the organisation, as a whole, are searching for a new, more influential role in world politics.  <\/span><\/p>\n

The new US administration sees its role in the world as less globally proactive and more concentrated on its internal challenges. Just recently, State Secretary Marco Rubio has stated that the \u201ceffort to be the world\u2019s \u201cparent\u201d has distracted the U.S. from pursuing its own national interests\u201d<\/span>. In a discussion at Chatham House in London, Indian Minister for Foreign Affairs, S. Jaishankar, suggested that the latest foreign policy shifts of the US administration are \u201cgood\u201d for India, as New Delhi sees \u201cthe American president that moves towards multipolarity\u201d<\/span> and this is the global vision India shares. <\/span><\/p>\n

With all the challenges, the world enters an era of shaky geopolitics, which will influence alliances and bilateral relations between the states. In such periods, \u2018small islands of stability\u2019 are worth looking for, also in bilateral relations. For Ukraine and India, these are economy (agriculture and pharmaceuticals), security (nuclear security and tech cooperation), and enhancement of cultural cooperation (to broaden mutual understanding). The topic of the UN reform also stays relevant to the interests of both countries, though the final goal of the two is different.<\/span><\/p>\n

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ERA OF SHAKY GEOPOLITICS. IS THERE THE ONE TO BENEFIT? <\/span><\/h1>\n

One can find many adjectives to describe the current state of the world, but \u201cstable\u201d would be the last one to use. The post-WWII international system, as well as the post-Cold War order, is crushing. The world is neither unipolar nor bipolar. In many current discussions, it is called multipolar, but as the 2025 Munich Security Conference report rightly concludes: \u201cWhile today\u2019s world is already multipolar is debatable, the world\u2019s \u201cmultipolarisation\u201d is a fact\u201d<\/span>. The recent changes in US foreign policy after the last presidential elections, together with the consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine and the growing influence of the emerging middle powers, became the last nail into the coffin of the post-war international order.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe post-war global order is not just obsolete, it is now a weapon being used against us,\u201d<\/span> US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his speech before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stressing that all this led to a \u201cmoment in which we must now confront the single greatest risk of geopolitical instability\u201d<\/span>. Looking at actual numbers that mean instabilities, 2023 became the year with the highest number of state-based conflicts since the end of WWII<\/span>, and the Russian war against Ukraine is one of the biggest conflicts on that list. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Russia-Ukraine war has also been the major factor that has influenced geopolitical stability in the world for the last few years. The outcome of the war, if it brings just and lasting peace with punishment to those responsible for mass killings and violation of international and humanitarian law, may become the push for the creation of the updated rules-based order. If not, we risk plunging into an era of chaos, where the stronger will have power only by the rule of force.<\/span><\/p>\n

Besides that, the Russian invasion of Ukraine had a major influence <\/span>on food security, global economic stability, and global arms trade<\/b>. Considered a breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine produced 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market<\/span>. Blocking of Ukrainian food exports to international markets caused a \u201cshock increase in global prices\u201d<\/span> and resulted in the severe disruption of grain exports, which, however, was overcome due to the Black Sea Grain Corridor and the effective work of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As a result, in 2024, Ukraine, for the first time, exported more grain than in 2021<\/span> \u2014 a year before the full-scale invasion.<\/span><\/p>\n

The global arms trade also increased with the US dominance. According to the recent SIPRI study<\/span>, the United States further increased its share of global arms exports to 43%, while Ukraine became the world’s largest importer of major arms in the last five years.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Russia\u2014Ukraine war has also been <\/span>reshaping global alliances<\/b>. European and several Asia-Pacific countries (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia) and the US sided with Ukraine (though with the new US administration, the situation is in reverse now). Multiple countries in Asia and Africa refused taking sides. Iran and North Korea backed Russia. As the US steps down with the new administration in its support of Ukraine, we also see the so-called \u2018coalition of the willing\u2019<\/span> under the leadership of the United Kingdom and France to be formed. Nineteen countries committed to maintaining the flow of military aid to Ukraine, supporting and enhancing its defensive military capabilities to deter future aggression following any peace deal. <\/span><\/p>\n

The rise of <\/span>AI technologies, misinformation and cyberwarfare<\/b> has created new ways for countries to counter each other. AI technologies have been actively developed and tested on the frontline in Ukraine<\/span> and other battlegrounds. Yet AI could and is used for the \u2018global benefit\u2019, and the recent AI Action Summit in Paris<\/span>, co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscored this goal among countries worldwide. There are also multiple endeavours to regulate the usage of AI technologies, and many future outcomes will depend on how the regulation will work. Russian and Chinese mis- and disinformation campaigns are yet another weapon that might be adopted and developed by the states, and nations have to find a way to counter them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though <\/span>China<\/b> tries to pretend to be a global stalwart amidst worldwide turbulence, its economic and military development poses a threat<\/span>, especially to the region of the Indo-Pacific. With the new US administration’s attempts to push China\u2019s growing global power, the situation stays extremely volatile. The recent rise of China has also provoked changes in India\u2019s strategic threat calculations<\/span>, as well as in India’s public opinion. According to the most recent poll, 43% of Indians see China<\/span> as India\u2019s biggest military threat. <\/span><\/p>\n

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TRAJECTORY OF THE UKRAINE \u2014 INDIA RELATIONS SINCE THE FULL-SCALE INVASION <\/span><\/h1>\n

The year 2024 has become the year of the historic shift in India-Ukraine relations. For the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the Indian Prime Minister visited Kyiv. <\/span><\/p>\n

As pointed out by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the visit of PM Modi was done on a symbolically important for Ukraine day \u2014 August 23, the day of the national flag, on the eve of Independence Day. The work which was done before the visit (meeting of the working groups, etc.) paved the way for the comprehensive bilateral agreement,<\/span> which covered multiple levels of cooperation:<\/span><\/p>\n