The last two weeks have been running before the eyes of Ukrainians as some Phantasmagoria or a thriller when there are so many things happening at once, and you are just waiting when all of this to start making sense. The only problem is – all this has not been a movie, and Ukrainians are definitely not the viewers who are ready just to watch but not participate in the screen writing. Will it be a drama, or a happy end, will we have a hero who saves the world, or “Part 1, to be continued ….” When the most dramatic events are still to be expected? We still don’t know. But there are trends that neither we nor Ukraine’s partners can ignore.
The first publicly disclosed direct call between presidents Trump and Putin shocked a lot of observers around the world, with strong messages condemning the US President’s position immediately after the first news came. The President, who positions himself as a winner, de facto allowed to outplay himself while running for quick success. However, the later proposals and statements of President Trump and his team, including at the Munich Security Conference, made wondering, in which team the US is going to play. Less than an hour after the end of the conversation, an intense missile and drone attack woke up millions of Ukraine. New attacks against the ports in the Odesa region have been almost daily. The energy system was targeted again. In such conditions, as a Ukrainian, will you be biased in assessing the US’ new approach towards the Russian-Ukraine war? No, we are just realistic.
Trump’s team approaches the possible negotiations as a business. You can bargain, trade-off, compromise – because something material is at stake. That is why he constantly calls it a “peace deal”, not a peace plan or “just peace”. For Putin, it is not material, it is ideological. So, he is not going to compromise if not pressed. He is raising the stakes, demanding more, to agree on what he really would like to have – control over Ukraine and its future, occupation of a significant part of its territory, and for the future – disbalancing and weakening Europe.
Trump’s post after the first telephone conversation was a clear sign that Putin won one point in this game. World War II narrative is a favourite narrative of the Russian President when he monopolises the victory and erases the history and participation of other Soviet nations. But the post went further. It stepped back from identifying Russia as an aggressor and equalled Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians killed in this war when he talks about “millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine”.
Putin scored the second point when both Trump and Hegseth stated that “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” The perspective of the NATO membership was always an important issue demonstrating the success of the Russian propaganda, as Alliance enlargement has never been a real reason for the war. But at the same time – it was an important bargaining chip at the negotiations table, which the White House just lost, as already given what the Kremlin claimed.
In his inaugural speech, President Trump spoke about sovereignty, emphasising its importance. But sovereignty is exactly what Ukraine is fighting for. Statements from Secretary Hegseth that “we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective” again play into the hands of the Russian side and bring a third point to Putin’s team. The Russian demands regarding Ukrainian territories have not decreased but increased since 2022, despite the losses of what they had managed to occupy originally. Currently, the request goes as far as demanding territories that have never been occupied. Moreover, the Kremlin even doesn’t want to negotiate a possible exchange of the Kursk region to the Zaporizhzhia region occupied territories. So, the US statements do not bring a realistic approach but just encourage further demands. And again, just before an initial talk in Saudi Arabia – this is just weakening the US negotiations’ position.
Putin played the card of “goodwill” well, getting yet one point to himself. The Prisoners exchange, which happened a day before the phone call, was an easy gesture, as Russia had not returned a spy or an assassin, even a soldier or high-rank criminal. Putin has a lot of such hostages and can easily take more as the US citizens still continue travelling to Russia. He demonstrated goodwill without any effort but reached the effect of gratitude from Trump’s side, as the case is a good media picture supporting Trump’s image as a guy who can deliver and who cares about his fellow citizens. Who did notice that the next day, the Russian authorities arrested another US citizen.
Does President Trump recognise the long-term consequences of such concessions and agreements, or would just a short cease-fire be enough to demonstrate that he is a winner, a hero who “finished” the war? Because the pressure over Ukraine and European allies can bring a cease-fire, but without addressing the roots of this aggression, it will be a short success that allows Russia to feel they can continue intimidation of the third states without any punishment, plus to have a break from sanctions consequences and to accumulate military and economic forces for future attacks. The agreement on rare minerals brought to Ukraine by the US administration clearly demonstrated that the new administration needs something now and quickly, without readiness to provide security or long-term commitments (even though they have been agreed in the Bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the United States of America signed in June 2024).
The US Administration needs to recognise that it is in their interests to let Ukraine win. If they define China as a bigger threat than Russia, so by allowing Russia to win, de facto, they receive both China and Russia as problems. Beijing is carefully following the situation – how far the Western partners will go to help Ukraine, what resources do they have or will have available, how effective are sanctions, how to bypass them, what are the red lines for the partners’ support, and is it any value of the security agreements the US is signing with their allies around the world. Defeating Russia can be a strong signal that aggressive behaviour is not acceptable and that Western military alliances are a reliable deterrence tool. Business-like, it is just cheaper to help Ukraine now than to face Chinese or the greater Russian malign influence.
If the White House would allow Ukraine to be excluded from negotiations and choose a strategy of talks about Ukraine without Ukraine – it would give an additional score to President Putin. Since Day 1 of the aggression in all his statements, he rejected Ukraine’s agency, calling for direct talks with Washington. In this regard, a slightly positive tendency has been noticed, as the original reaction from Ukraine and different European leaders pushed the US representatives to tailor their position and acknowledge that any deal can be made without Ukrainian representatives on the table.
Just before the inauguration, the experts discussed that the most difficult would be to keep Trump’s attention regarding Ukraine, as he would be distracted by so many different crises. Now, Ukrainians are concerned whether he is too concentrated on speed instead of the quality of the peace agreement. Also, the question still remains open – it is the role of the European states. The original presentation of the US peace plan was paused so to agree it with Europeans. The immediate statement of the Weimar+ group demonstrated that none of this had been preliminary discussed with European allies. The urgent meetings of Europe’s foreign ministers in Munich and state leaders in Paris are good signs that Europe is finally getting on track, understanding that it is now or never that they can take responsibility for their own future, including Ukraine. However, the crack in the Transatlantic unity is yet one point in Mr Putin’s scores.
Yes, it is not an American war, but it can be an American victory. As for today, we saw 6:0 in Putin’s favour. And with this we are coming to the second round. Trump is running a sprint, while Putin is running a marathon. And a victory depends on a clear understanding of Putin’s goals and traps.
Under these conditions, we should understand what is next and what can we do. The list can be long, but without any particular priority, the following should be mentioned. Ukrainians should stop panicking and remember that the role of the Europeans and the volume of their support has increased significantly, so it is not only Washington on whom the future security configurations are dependent. Second, both Ukrainians and Europeans should acknowledge that the speed of the proposals and process will be tremendously quick. So, there is no time for long negotiations and planning – all counter proposals, resources, plans, etc, should be already ready, and the leaders should be ready to deploy quickly. Ukraine, unfortunately, should become less idealistic but more pragmatic in relations with the US, but at the same time, decisive in terms of protecting its national interests. And the most crucial – as it has been for three years, so it is even more now – what really will impact the negotiations is the situation on the battlefield. So we should help Ukraine advance and winning, if we don’t want Europe and the US to lose.
Dr Hanna Shelest, Director for Security Studies and Global Outreach at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”