The current EU defense capability development framework, while comprehensive in scope, requires fundamental recalibration to address the rapidly evolving nature of modern warfare. The 2023 Priorities are inclusive of employment of unmanned and autonomous systems (US/AS) but fail to prioritize their transformative potential or grasp the fundamentally new logic of warfare they introduce. This brief outlines the strategic pivot towards autonomous systems as the cornerstone of future defence capabilities.
Analysis
The convergence of unmanned systems and data science catalyze a significant transformative change in military technology. Within the next few years, a quantum leap in battlefield architecture is expected due to the emergence of intelligent ecosystems of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). This shift demands a complete reconceptualization of how the EU develops and prioritizes defence capabilities.
Functional autonomy represents an emerging specific metric on the battlefield, not only transforming operational control on weaponry but fundamentally reshaping human involvement in the decision-making processes throughout the kill web. This evolution is fundamentally altering battlefield architecture from linear, static formations to fluid, hyper-adaptive networks of dispersed, semi-autonomous units integrated through AI.
By 2030, virtually every substantial element of legacy combat architecture will require transformation across three dimensions: integration with autonomous systems (“masters”), reliable protection capabilities against such systems (“mavericks”), or embracing partial / complete autonomy to transform from manned to unmanned architectures (metamorphs).
This taxonomic revolution demands a corresponding command and control (С2) revolution – the emergence of C6ISR architecture, where combat systems integration transcends traditional C4ISTAR frameworks to orchestrate human-machine teaming at a new scale, with autonomous systems moving from the periphery to the gravitational center of warfare.
Autonomous kill-web systems represent the cutting edge of this innovation trend, automating the critical path from sensor data to precision strikes. These systems transform raw visual intelligence into actionable targeting coordinates, offering flexible engagement protocols with optional human oversight. The ultimate goal is a nearly closed reconnaissance-strike loop that minimizes human intervention while maximizing operational tempo and combat effectiveness.
Besides purely operational considerations, the economic rationale for this transition is no less compelling. Timely full-scale deployment of US/AS – centric capability development framework offers radical cost advantages through staffing level adjustment, lower per-unit costs, and enhanced operational efficiency. Furthermore, the scalability of autonomous systems allows for rapid force generation and replacement of losses at a fraction of the cost of conventional systems.
Case Studies
Black Sea Fleet Postmortem. Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) have fundamentally altered the strategic balance against Russia’s conventional naval forces during late 2022 – 2024. These semi-autonomous platforms have dismantled over 30% of the Black Sea Fleet (27 out of 80) and forced the rest to abandon the base in Sevastopol, demonstrating how relatively low-cost unmanned systems can effectively neutralize billion-euro capital ships and their supporting infrastructure.
UAVs vs Heavy Armor. Massive use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) has obscured the role of armored vehicles. Traditional armor formations now face unprecedented vulnerability to drones and precision-guided munitions. Ukrainian drones are responsible for wiping out 50 to 70 % of all the eliminated combat vehicles of the Russian army. This has necessitated a fundamental reimagining of mechanized warfare, adopting counter-UAS systems and developing new doctrines emphasizing dispersed operations and active protection systems.
RCSs Transformation. Drone-based reconnaissance-strike complexes (RSCs) has brought virtually unlimited precision-strike capacity to the tactical level. These systems further develop to integrate autonomous sensors, AI-powered data processing, and precision strike capabilities into a unified battle network, dramatically reducing the sensor-to-shooter cycle. This capability, scalable to operational depths with advancements in drone range and autonomy, profoundly shifts combat from direct engagements to a “drone destroys, man occupies” paradigm.
New Tech doctrine
Ukraine was first to achieve a historic milestone in bringing bridges between military innovation and capability development framework by establishing the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) as a distinct service branch, marking the first time that unmanned systems have been systematically integrated across air, land, and maritime domains under unified command. The USF Command has successfully developed comprehensive doctrines and operational procedures for unmanned systems deployment, including command & control (C2), reconnaissance, logistics, communications, and combat applications across three key domains. The integration of unmanned systems into situational awareness networks has significantly enhanced C2 capabilities and decision-making processes.
The organizational framework includes different forms of new reconnaissance and strike unmanned systems units, as well as maintenance units, integrated within brigade structures. Most effective units that demonstrated exceptional operational capabilities such as Magyar Birds or Achilles got promotion to expand from battalions to brigades. Within the recent most ambitious project, the Drone Line, Ukrainian MoD has allocated over $110m to bringing together five of the most advanced and combat-experienced UAV brigades to integrate cutting-edge drone technologies, reconnaissance, strike capabilities, and electronic warfare to establish an effective “killzone” at a distance of 10-15 kilometers in the Donbas frontline area. Each brigade within the initiative receives specialized training, advanced UAV systems, and logistical support to maximize the effectiveness. In the case of success, the initiative is to be scaled on other operational zones.
The Ukrainian military backed by the civil society has also developed a comprehensive support structure for this new capability through various state initiatives. The Ministry of Digital Transformation’s “Drones for Points” program and the UNITED24 platform have successfully established sustainable procurement and development channels. The government has streamlined bureaucratic procedures, enabling rapid scaling of production and technology implementation. Both governmental and civil training centers operate to multiply successful operational experiences.
This systematic approach has created asymmetric advantages against Russian forces which still outnumber Ukraine in key combat capabilities.
Recommendations
Rather than retrofitting unmanned systems into a conventional framework, as the 2023 priorities suggest, the EU should establish US/AS as the core of its force structure to maintain strategic relevance and operational effectiveness.
The development of US/AS capabilities is to be prioritized across several critical domains: AI-native C6ISR architecture that builds upon advanced fleet management and situational awareness systems, unmanned systems units generation and deployment, protected digital communications infrastructure, electronic warfare capabilities, and AI-powered analytical tools. This technological ecosystem will form the foundation for effective semi-autonomous operations while providing resilience against adversary counter-measures.
Economically, the shift promises long-term savings by reducing personnel demands and leveraging scalable, dual-use technologies, aligning defense budgets with strategic efficacy. This requires not only technological investment but also doctrinal innovation, training transformation, and organizational adaptation. The EU capability development framework must evolve to prioritize the rapid acquisition and integration of unmanned and autonomous systems while maintaining interoperability with legacy platforms during the transition period.
This strategic reorientation demands immediate action to avoid capability gaps and ensure EU forces remain competitive in future conflicts.
Important note: the development of semi- and fully autonomous AI-driven lethal systems emerges as a strategic priority for major geopolitical powers over the next five years, as it offers solutions to their operational, demographic and economic constraints in armed conflicts. The race for autonomous systems superiority has started. For Europe, the strategic choice is to either lead this transformation or risk being outpaced by potential adversaries pursuing these capabilities regardless of conventional frameworks and ethical issue
The set of policy briefs is prepared within the framework of ‘Strengthening Ukrainian expert voice in the European Union and EU member states and partners’ project, supported by a grant from the Foundation Open Society Institute in cooperation with the Open Society Foundations.
The Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” has initiated a consortium of Ukrainian think tanks to prepare contributions that reflect the battlefield experience of modern warfare and to make a specific contribution to the discussion on the White Paper preparation process. The group also includes: the Sahaidachnyi Security Centre, the Analytical Centre of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Reforms Support Office, the NGO Aerorozvidka, the NGO Price of Freedom.
The set of short contributions “Blue and Yellow Annex to the White Paper on the Future
of European Defence” addresses the issues of modern drone warfare, rethinking the air defence architecture to meet the challenges of mass hybrid drones and missiles, mobilisation and recruitment practices for next-generation warfare, and high-tech military procurement in modern warfare.
The aim of this initiative is to present key ideas on current and future military doctrine, the future force concept and the development of military capabilities from the perspective of Ukrainian experts.
