Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war, the NB8 countries have demonstrated leadership in supporting Ukraine. They not only provide significant military assistance proportional to their GDP but also develop new models of sustainable cooperation in political, military, and security spheres – crucial for our fight for sovereignty and peace.
The unwavering support for Ukraine among Nordic and Baltic political elites and societies is clear. A recent Eurobarometer survey indicates strong public backing for funding the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine. The findings reveal overwhelming support, with 92% of Swedes, 88% of Danes, 88% of Finns, 76% of Lithuanians, 70% of Latvians, and 63% of Estonians fully endorsing this initiative.
On 18 December 2024, the Nordic-Baltic – Ukraine Forum took place in Stockholm, Sweden, bringing together representatives from Ukraine and the Nordic and Baltic countries. Organized by the independent foreign policy and international security think tank “Ukrainian Prism” and the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) in partnership with the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, this event marked a significant moment in strengthening our partnership.
This forum underscored the importance of deeper strategic collaboration between Ukraine and the NB8 in key areas such as defence cooperation, security guarantees, and regional security.
This paper briefly explores how the NB8 is uniquely positioned to assume a leadership role—alongside countries like France and the UK—in supporting Ukraine and strengthening regional security, as Europe increasingly turns to coalitions of the willing amid shifting transatlantic dynamics.
NB8-Ukraine military cooperation
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the NB8 countries have been leading supporters of Ukraine, often taking the initiative with contributions that set key precedents for other Western allies. Their proactive stance has challenged more hesitant approaches in the West, establishing new standards for military assistance and inspiring broader international coalitions to enhance and diversify aid to Ukraine.
The NB8 countries collectively lead in military aid to Ukraine on a per capita basis, ranking first among all contributors. In absolute terms, their total military assistance ranks second only to the United States, highlighting their significant commitment despite their smaller economies. This underscores the NB8’s outsized role in supporting Ukraine’s defence efforts relative to their population and economic size.
All NB8 countries have signed bilateral agreements with Ukraine, with some committing a specific percentage of their GDP to aid. In addition to military and economic support, these agreements also reinforce their backing for Ukraine’s integration into the EU and NATO.
Ukraine and its partners have formed eight capability coalitions, bringing together 34 member countries from the Ukraine Defence Contact Group. The NB8 countries play a particularly active role in these efforts, leading or co-leading five of the eight coalitions. Estonia co-leads the IT Coalition, Lithuania and Iceland co-lead the Coalition for Demining, Latvia co-leads the Drone Coalition, Norway co-leads the Naval Capabilities Coalition, and Denmark co-leads the Coalition for Aviation Capabilities.
NB8: A Coalition of the Willing in Turbulent Times
The NB8 has emerged as a coalition of the willing – exactly what both Ukraine and Europe need at this moment. As the transatlantic landscape shifts, especially amid uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies, the Nordic-Baltic countries play a critical role in ensuring that support for Ukraine remains consistent and strategic. The NB8’s united approach helps counterbalance any hesitations from larger Western actors, ensuring Ukraine continues to receive the necessary political, military, and economic backing.
Expanding Defence Production: The Danish and Norwegian Models
Ukraine’s rapidly expanding defence industry still struggles with funding constraints, leaving much of its production potential untapped. Denmark’s direct procurement model, where it has contracted Ukrainian firms to produce self-propelled artillery and drones, provides a viable blueprint for other allies. Similarly, Norway’s commitment to financing Ukrainian arms production through creating joint Norwegian-Ukrainian ventures enhances sustainable military aid. Scaling up these models across the NB8 would allow Ukraine to better utilise its manufacturing capacity while securing long-term defence contracts for its growing industry.
Strengthening Security Through the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)
The JEF, a UK-led rapid-response military coalition, presents a key opportunity for Ukraine. All NB8 countries are already active JEF members, making them natural advocates for Ukraine’s full integration into the initiative. Unlike NATO, which requires unanimous decisions, the JEF operates with greater flexibility and speed – qualities essential in countering hybrid threats and rapid military escalations. Membership in the JEF would enhance Ukraine’s interoperability with Western forces and provide another layer of deterrence against Russian aggression.
SkyShield: A Game-Changer in Air Defence
SkyShield is designed as a principal pillar of Ukraine’s defence, aiming to protect its civilians, infrastructure, and economy while weakening Russia’s offensive capabilities. By mobilising just 120 European aircraft, SkyShield can achieve strategic impact without direct NATO involvement. The participation of the NB8 countries in this strategic endeavour would not only strengthen Ukraine’s security but also Europe’s military posture.
Key Benefits of SkyShield:
- Military: Protects Ukraine’s population and critical infrastructure, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF) to focus on frontline operations.
- Political: Demonstrates that Europe is capable of defending itself and reduces reliance on U.S. decision-making.
- Economic: Protects export corridors, boosts investor confidence, and encourages the return of displaced Ukrainians.
SkyShield will contribute to eroding Russia’s military capabilities by disrupting its use of glide bombs, missile attacks, and mechanised assaults. This system can also act as a foundation for Ukraine’s future air defence strategy, ensuring long-term security and resilience.
Baltic Sea Security: Blocking Russian Oil Exports
The weakest point of Putin’s regime is its reliance on oil export revenues, which make up over 70% of Russia’s current energy exports. The Baltic Sea plays a particularly crucial role, accounting for 60% of Russia’s maritime crude oil exports due to its advantageous political and geographical conditions. One of the most immediate actions the NB8 can take is restricting Russian access to Baltic Sea ports, directly targeting a major source of Russian war financing. Measures such as denying entry to Russian oil tankers or implementing stricter sanctions on maritime logistics would weaken Russia’s economic resilience and reduce its capacity to sustain prolonged aggression against Ukraine. Enhanced maritime security measures and intelligence-sharing among NB8 nations will further limit Russia’s ability to exploit Baltic Sea trade routes for military purposes.
Concerns are mounting over Russia’s use of hybrid tactics in the Baltic Sea, particularly the suspected sabotage of undersea cables and pipelines, which has escalated in recent months. These actions are designed to destabilise the region and gauge the responses of NATO and EU member states. While NATO and the EU are key players in regional security, the immediacy and targeted nature of hybrid threats compel Baltic Sea nations to take independent action. Proactive steps, such as restricting Russian vessel access to the Danish Straits, would demonstrate a strong commitment to protecting critical infrastructure and ensuring regional stability.
Future Steps for NB8 and Ukraine
To fully harness the potential of NB8 cooperation, further actions should include:
- Institutionalising NB8-Ukraine defence collaboration through regular summits and security dialogues.
- Accelerating defence technology transfers by adopting streamlined licensing and production agreements.
- Enhancing military training and interoperability to ensure that Ukraine can integrate into Western-led defence initiatives like JEF more efficiently.
- Expanding cyber defence cooperation to counter Russian hybrid warfare threats.
- Strengthening intelligence sharing between NB8 nations and Ukraine to preempt security threats.
Conclusion
The NB8 has solidified its role as a steadfast ally of Ukraine, leveraging shared geopolitical interests to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This coalition has not only provided military and financial support but has also championed Ukraine’s integration into European security structures.
Going forward, the NB8 can enhance its impact by:
- Lobbying for Ukraine’s full membership in the JEF.
- Expanding the Danish and Norwegian models of defence production procurement.
- Implementing SkyShield to safeguard Ukrainian airspace and strategic assets.
- Blocking Russian oil exports via Baltic Sea restrictions.
- Strengthening Ukraine’s civil society to drive defence reforms.
By taking these steps, the NB8 will continue shaping Europe’s response to Russian aggression, ensuring a more secure and resilient continent. Ukraine’s victory is not only essential for its survival but for the future stability of the entire European security architecture. Furthermore, SkyShield and JEF integration, coupled with defence industry expansion, will establish Ukraine as a key contributor to European security. The NB8 must seize this moment to reinforce its leadership and commitment to Ukraine’s long-term success.