The problem of illegal migration of Central American and Mexican citizens across the southern border of the United States of America became significantly more urgent in 2021, when, according to the US Border Service (U.S. Customs and Border Protection), 1.7 million foreign citizens illegally crossed the border.
According to US border guards, in 2021, about 700 thousand illegal migrants were citizens of Mexico, while 1 million were citizens of other countries (mainly Central American countries, and to a lesser extent South American countries). For comparison, in 2020, the total number of confirmed illegal border crossings was less than 400 thousand. The growth in illegal migration to the United States along its southern border from 2020 to 2021 is almost 300%. During 2021-2024, the number of illegal border crossings for the purpose of migration to the United States remained consistently high – in the region of 1.5 to 2.2 million registered cases per year. In total, up to 6.4 million foreign citizens could have entered the United States illegally through the southern border during the period 2021-2024. More detailed statistics for this and the previous period are presented in the graph:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of 2021, 5.2 million Mexicans, 780,000 Guatemalans, 751,000 El Salvadorans, 564,000 Hondurans, and about 200,000 from Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil alike were living in the United States illegally. According to the Pew Research Center, in 2022, the largest number of illegal immigrants to the United States came from Mexico (4.05 million per year), El Salvador (750,000), India (725,000), Guatemala (675,000) and Honduras (525,000). As we can see, 3 out of 5 of these countries belong to the Central American region, so they will be the main focus of this study.
Given that about 6 million migrants (almost 2% of the US population) could have crossed the US border illegally in 2021-2024, one could expect significant politicization of the migration issue. And so it happened: the issue of mass illegal border crossings and countering them became one of the foundations of Republican criticism of the course of the Democratic administration of Joe Biden in domestic policy. This issue was also actively exploited by the now-President-elect Trump during the primaries and the main election campaign.
Authors:
- Oleksandr Kraiev
- Yevhen Kostogryzov
- Ivan Fechko
CONTENTS
- INTRODUCTION
- WHAT DO WE KNOW?
- CENTRAL AMERICA’S REACTION
- “NEW” TRUMP?
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
Trump’s policies during his first term
During his first successful election campaign in 2016, Donald Trump was remembered for his grandeur statements about building a wall on the border with Mexico and promises to make Mexico pay for it. These statements took up almost all the attention regarding Trump’s immigration policy, while in reality, the plans and actions of the then 45th US president were somewhat more complex. On August 31, 2016, while speaking at a campaign rally in the state of Arizona, which borders the southern US border, Donald Trump outlined 10 main principles of his immigration policy. Some of the points concerned immigration in general, but most still focused on the issue of the southern border. Among the Trump’s plans, in addition to building the wall, were: to end the “catch and release” policy; increase efforts to prosecute migrants who have committed criminal offenses; increase minimum prison terms for repeated illegal border crossings; increase the number of border guards and border customs officers; create a separate institution to deal with deportations (Deportation Task Force) and a number of other actions aimed at amending the legislation.
Most of these promises were not fully fulfilled. For example, by the end of Donald Trump’s first presidential term, only 727 kilometers of the “Trump wall” had been completed, which is only about a quarter of the length of the US-Mexico border. On the other hand, it is worth noting that the number of illegal border crossings in the period 2017-2021 was significantly lower than in the same four-year period. This was due both to the actions of the Trump administration (temporarily withdrawing protections for certain categories of illegal immigrants under the DACA and DAPA programs introduced during the Obama era) and to the political and economic dynamics in the region.
Appointments affecting migration policy
Two of Donald Trump’s main appointments that directly affect immigration policy are Christie Noem and Tom Homan. Ms. Noem has already been appointed as the Department of Home Security Secretary, an equivalent of the Secretary of the Interior; Tom Homan’s position is less clear – during 2017-2018 he served as the head of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), and now, according to representatives of the Trump team, he will hold a position in the White House (probably an immigration adviser or similar). Donald Trump himself, in his characteristic manner, dubbed Homan the “border czar”.
Ms. Noem, who has been a consistent front-runner for the president’s campaign, has called for tougher penalties for border crossings and increased efforts to prevent people from crossing the southern border. During her Senate confirmation hearings, Noem outlined her plans to “completely reverse” Department of Homeland Security policies, deport “millions of migrants,” end CBP One, a mobile app that allowed migrants to register and apply for asylum in the United States, reduce the use of temporary immigration waivers for migrants from countries facing humanitarian, political, or security crises, and reinstate Trump’s previous policy of holding migrants in Mexico while U.S. immigration authorities and courts process their asylum applications..
Mr. Homan has been even more outspoken in his statements. During the summer of 2024, he repeatedly stated that if Donald Trump returns to the White House, he (Homan) will lead the largest deportation campaign in history. Much of Homan’s rhetoric also draws a connection between illegal immigration and Mexican/Central American drug cartels. In light of this, Homan branded the Biden administration’s policy of relatively open reception of migrants as “national suicide.” Homan is currently known for his work in the administration on developing logistical plans for mass deportations. He is also known for an interview in which, when asked by a journalist about the problem of separating migrant families during deportations, Homan replied with the phrase: “migrants can be deported as families”.
Trump’s immigration team appears even more determined than Donald Trump himself was during his first term.
CENTRAL AMERICA’S REACTION
Donald Trump’s statements about preparing mass deportations of illegal immigrants from the United States since the beginning of his term have been in the spotlight of Central American countries and Mexico. The risk is particularly high for countries such as Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, which, after Mexico, have the largest number of citizens living illegally in the United States. Therefore, these countries must prepare for a possible influx of migrants, for which they are not yet ready.
Hnduras
Government officials and activists have expressed concern about the potential influx of deportees as a result of Trump’s proposed mass deportations. Officials acknowledge limited capacity to reintegrate large numbers of returnees, citing economic challenges and inadequate infrastructure. Antonio Garcia, Honduran Deputy Foreign Minister, expressed concern about the country’s ability to accept deportees, citing a lack of resources to support their reintegration. About 560,000 Hondurans are currently living without legal status, of whom 150,000 could be identified and deported immediately. Honduras has accepted about half a million deportees from the United States since 2015.
Cesar Muñoz, a representative of the Mennonite Social Action Commission, noted another side of the problem: Honduras, like other countries in the region, is heavily dependent on remittances from migrants from the United States, and is now at risk of facing serious economic challenges due to the possible interruption of these financial flows, which are vital for many families.
El Salvador
President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele, who was successfully re-elected in early 2024 with 84.65% support, had a tense relationship with the Joe Biden administration due to the latter’s criticism of his crime-fighting methods, which they believed posed a threat to democracy and the independence of the judiciary. Bukele, on the other hand, has an excellent relationship with Donald Trump: on June 1, 2024, Donald Trump Jr. attended his inauguration with Matt Gaetz (who was appointed but later recalled as a candidate for an attorney general). Bukele himself was one of the first leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his election victory.
There has been no official statement from the Salvadoran government regarding Donald Trump’s latest statements on migration, which may be explained by the good relations between Presidents Bukele and Trump. During Trump’s first term, they actively cooperated on migration policy, despite controversial issues such as attempts to abolish the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program, which protects about 200,000 Salvadorans from deportation (there are about 741,000 Salvadorans in the United States). Currently, the situation in El Salvador is stable and under governmental control, which distinguishes the country from other states in the region that face more serious challenges, particularly in the areas of security and management of migration flows.
Costa Rica
Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chavez has taken positions close to Trumpism. Following Trump’s election victory in November 2024, the Costa Rican government welcomed the newly elected president and his vice president, J. Vance, expressing its commitment to strengthening the historic and friendly relations between the two countries. Costa Rican Foreign Minister Arnoldo André expressed confidence that his country would maintain its status as a US ally under President Trump.
However, there are concerns about possible changes in immigration policy and their impact on remittances, as well as the possibility of protectionist economic measures. Concerns about migration changes are important, as Costa Rica was planning to receive about 1 million transit migrants heading to the United States in 2024 alone. Former Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla expressed concern about the fragmentation of relations in Central America, which could reinforce Trump’s pragmatic approach to regional policy. On the other hand, there is speculation that, given the good relations between the countries and the administration’s proximity to the Trump team, Costa Rica could become one of the leaders in representing Central American interests before Washington. In this regard, President Rodrigo Chavez, during a meeting with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, agreed to form a league of Central American countries with shared values and vision in order to get closer to the new government of Donald Trump.
Guatemala
Guatemala has previously reported that it is preparing a response strategy in the event of mass deportations, which includes stimulating development in areas with high poverty. Guatemala has been active in preparing for the arrival of the new administration, including holding meetings with members of the Trump transition team, including Senator Marco Rubio before his appointment as Secretary of State, and with the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, discussing issues of migration and mass deportations, border security. It is also worth noting the great importance for the Guatemalan economy of remittances from its diaspora in the United States, which account for 20% of the country’s GDP.
On December 26, Reuters reported that Guatemala was ready to accept deported US citizens from other countries in an effort to improve relations with the Trump administration. This particularly applies to citizens of countries such as Nicaragua, Venezuela and Haiti, with which the US has difficult relations. Guatemala is currently receiving 14 flights a week from the Biden administration and is preparing for even more.
Following these reports, the Guatemalan government officially announced that no agreement had been reached with the newly elected US government. However, the Central American country confirmed its readiness to engage in a “constructive and respectful dialogue” with the new Trump administration.
Nicaragua
Nicaragua is ruled by a dictatorial regime led by Daniel Ortega, who is increasingly restricting freedoms in the country and has almost completely destroyed independent journalism. To date, the Nicaraguan authorities have not made any official statements in response to the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump on migration and possible changes in migration policy. However, various sectors of Nicaraguan society, primarily those opposed to the dictatorial regime, have expressed concern about Trump’s proposals. Human rights activist Pablo Cuevas notes: “Migrants who receive information are very afraid and are trying to find ways to legalize their stay”.
An estimated 90,000 Nicaraguans have entered the U.S. under the humanitarian password program, and Trump’s threats to deport migrants, even those with temporary legal status, are causing alarm in that community. On the other hand, opponents of the Nicaraguan government express hope that the Trump administration will continue to support the restoration of democracy in Nicaragua. Thus, although the Nicaraguan government has not officially responded to Trump’s statements on migration, there is noticeable concern among Nicaraguan migrants in the United States and opposition representatives about the possible consequences of the president-elect’s announced migration policies, given the fear of being persecuted by Ortega’s dictatorial regime.
Panama
President of Panama José Raúl Mulino, who was elected in May, has taken steps since taking office to reduce the flow of migrants through the Darien Gap, through which many migrants have been moving north. The move is in line with Trump’s policy of curbing migration. However, this has not helped to avoid tensions with President-elect Trump over another issue: the use of the Panama Canal. Donald Trump, first on his social media and then during a speech at an event in Phoenix, Arizona, criticized Panama for excessive tariffs on US ships and increased Chinese influence over infrastructure, and suggested that in such a situation he might abandon the treaty concluded under Jimmy Carter and return the canal to US control..
The Panamanian president rejected these claims, calling them a humiliation of the country’s independence. Instead, Mulino stressed that “the canal is not under direct or indirect control by China, the European Union, the United States or any other state” and offered Washington cooperation on illegal migration issues.
Belize
Foreign Minister of Belize Francis Fonseca acknowledged that Trump’s campaign statements were troubling, but urged to wait for meaningful steps, noting that the United States is known as a country that has “demonstrated its commitment to the rule of law for centuries.” For Belizeans living in the United States and in illegal immigration status, he advised them to be aware of the situation and try to regularize their status as much as possible..
Mexico
Mexico, under the leadership of newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum, has begun developing its own strategy for responding to the possible introduction of deportations. The motivation for this was two phone conversations between Sheinbaum and Trump, during which he emphasized that he was going to impose tariffs on exports from Mexico and Canada if they did not stop illegal migration. Sheinbaum noted her readiness to continue the agreement signed with Joe Biden, according to which Mexico accepted its citizens deported from the United States. Claudia Sheinbaum also said that she hopes to conclude agreements with D. Trump under which migrants deported from the United States would be sent directly to their country of origin, and not through Mexico. At a press conference, she emphasized that “their main function is to accept Mexicans”. The new Mexican government reiterates that the strategy is to address the root causes of migration and proposes a Mexican model of labor mobility.
Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances and Development Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, predicts that after the election of US President Donald Trump, approximately 150,000 people from Mexico and Central America will be deported annually. Specifically, he expects that among them will be about 65,000 Mexicans, 25,000 Guatemalans, 14,000 Salvadorans and 8,000 Hondurans..
Therefore, according to most representatives of Central American countries and Mexico, increased deportations may not only worsen the economic and humanitarian crisis, but also contribute to further migration in the long term. The lack of state capacity to support returnees highlights the difficulties that Central American countries face in responding to a possible tougher US immigration policy under President Trump. This situation has prompted discussions about the need for regional cooperation to effectively address migration challenges, as unilateral action may not be enough to manage this complex problem, and to establish closer relations with the Trump administration. At the same time, it is important to remember that Central America, like Latin America in general, is a heterogeneous region, and therefore the positions of countries on Donald Trump’s migration policy may vary, as can be seen from the analysis of their reactions to this topic.
“NEW” TRUMP?
So how does Donald Trump approach the migration issue at the beginning of his second term? How will his vision, and most importantly, his actions, differ from his first term in office, and to what extent is it possible to implement the ambitious program that the 47th president himself proclaimed during his own election campaign?
It is worth starting with the fact that Trump’s migration approach in itself will not be something radically new – rather, it will be a continuation of the course taken during his first term, but now, with the presence of executive experience and a team of devoted loyalists, such a course will be brought to an absolute.
Mass deportations
During his 2024 campaign, Donald Trump promised to launch the largest deportation drive in American history. While deportations from the interior of the United States increased during his first term compared to the second half of the Obama administration, they did not reach the levels seen during Obama’s first term and did not constitute what would be defined as mass deportations. However, domestic law enforcement under the previous Trump administration was significantly less focused than under Obama, contributing to widespread uncertainty and fear among immigrant communities.
Once reelected, the Trump administration is likely to launch a high-profile enforcement effort early in its term, serving as a deterrent. The extent to which these efforts will escalate into a large-scale deportation campaign remains uncertain. Implementing such an operation would require overcoming significant logistical, personnel, and resource constraints. A deportation effort of the magnitude Trump has suggested would likely require the mobilization of the National Guard, increased cooperation with local law enforcement, or the involvement of agencies not traditionally involved in immigration enforcement. These potential policy shifts could have significant legal, social, and economic consequences, especially in states with large immigrant populations.
Border crossing restrictions
The new administration is expected to prioritize border security and introduce stricter measures to stem the influx of asylum seekers. While the United States is legally obligated to process asylum claims under international agreements, this obligation was effectively circumvented from 2020 to 2023 through the use of Title 42, health authority, which allowed for the rapid removal of migrants without a formal asylum review. Despite these restrictions, a significant number of individuals were allowed to enter the United States between 2022 and early 2024 under humanitarian parole or through a Notice to Appear in Immigration Court. However, in the summer of 2024, the Biden administration issued an emergency order restricting asylum eligibility for individuals crossing the border between official ports of entry, leading to a significant decline in new asylum applications.
The new administration is likely to build on these restrictive measures, further restricting access to asylum and limiting applicants’ ability to remain in the United States while their cases are processed. One potential way to achieve this goal is to reinstate the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), commonly known as the “Remain in Mexico” program. Originally implemented in January 2019 by former President Trump in coordination with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the policy required asylum seekers, including vulnerable populations such as children, people with disabilities, and chronic illnesses, to wait in Mexico while their claims were processed. In two years, approximately 71,000 people have been subjected to the MPP, leading to significant humanitarian challenges, including inadequate shelter and personal safety in Mexican border cities.
Reinstating MPP or a similar policy would require both diplomatic coordination with Mexico and legal support within the U.S. judicial system. Given the administration’s focus on deterrence, it is likely to pursue a range of restrictive asylum policies aimed at reducing border crossings and limiting access to legal protections for migrants.
Legal migration
The new administration is expected to introduce additional bureaucratic obstacles to existing legal immigration pathways, effectively restricting migration without requiring congressional approval. One of the proposed mechanisms outlined in Project 2025 is to impose a cap on visa applications deemed overburdened, potentially leading to mass denials or lengthy delays. In addition, student visas from China could face significant restrictions, reflecting broader concerns about national security and geopolitical tensions.
Another possible policy change includes reinstating the travel ban on certain countries, often referred to as the “Muslim ban,” which was originally implemented during the first Trump administration. While the scope and specific countries affected remain unclear, such a move would be consistent with broader efforts to tighten immigration controls.
In addition to outright bans and restrictions, a key tactic to reduce legal immigration is administratively slowing down visa processing. Given the significant backlogs that already exist in many parts of the immigration system, simply continuing the normal procedures could significantly deter work- and family-based immigration. This approach was particularly effective during the previous Trump administration, when processing delays led to a significant reduction in the number of visas issued. Similar measures could be used again to achieve reductions in legal immigration without the need for legislative action.
The policy was prepared in collaboration between the Latin America and the Caribbean and North America Studies Programs of the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation».