NS2 would make Ukraine vulnerable to full-scale Russian aggression, Kyiv would need security guarantees

If Germany and the United States allow Russia to bypass the Ukrainian territory in gas transit and thereby make it more vulnerable to full-scale Russian military aggression, it would be justified to provide Ukraine with some reliable security guaranties, says Maksym Khylko (Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”).

Maksym Khylko points out that “with the launch of the Nord Stream 2, Russia will gain much more leverage of political pressure not only on Ukraine, but also on Poland and Belarus. Since Moscow will not be afraid of losing gas transit to Europe, the safeguard that deterred Russia from full-scale military aggression against Ukraine will disappear”.

“It is important for Kyiv to obtain from Berlin and Washington, first of all, not guarantees of continued gas transit after the launch of the Nord Stream 2, but security guarantees. Even if Moscow signs an agreement to extend gas transit through Ukraine, no one could be sure it would be duly implemented – we all remember the violation of the Budapest Memorandum and other international agreements. If Germany and the United States allow Russia to bypass the Ukrainian territory in gas transit and thereby make it more vulnerable to full-scale Russian military aggression, it would be justified to provide Ukraine with some reliable security guaranties”, he notes in the interview with PolskieRadio24.pl.
 
“After the Biden administration actually gave the green light to the completion of the Nord Stream 2, the chance to stop it is not very promising. But still, it should not be ruled out that the Kremlin can take new aggressive steps that will force Washington to reconsider its decision on the NS2”, he assumes.

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PolskieRadio24.pl: What are possible scenarios, especially as Ukraine, our region is concerned? We have very worrying news that the US will not sanction NS2 AG and Tony Blinken said that it was “fait accompli”. What do you think about that?

Back in December 2020, in one of the analytical materials, I warned that in order to improve relations with Germany, Biden could make concessions on Nord Stream 2. Unfortunately, that’s what happened.

Reality is that relations with Berlin are considered in Washington as more important than security concerns of the Eastern European partners.

Besides, ahead of the very important September 2021 parliamentary elections in Germany, the White House doesn’t want to provide the German critics of the U.S. with additional arguments.

PolskieRadio24.pl: Is it possible to stop NS2 still? Why it has not been stopped?

Maksym Khylko (Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”): After the Biden administration actually gave the green light to the completion of the Nord Stream 2, the chance to stop it is not very promising. But still, it should not be ruled out that the Kremlin can take new aggressive steps that will force Washington to reconsider its decision on the NS2.

I don’t think that Kyiv or Warsaw could have influenced Washington’s decision – Biden is striving too hard to restore relations with Germany, which have deteriorated significantly in recent years. However, Kyiv should have focused more on the security implications of the Nord Stream 2 than on financial losses. After all, although Ukraine’s financial losses from the cessation of Russian gas transit will be significant, the security aspect is much more important.

What are the consequences if it will be functioning anyway? Will it change the situation in the region?

Maksym Khylko (Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”): With the launch of the Nord Stream 2, Russia will gain much more leverage of political pressure not only on Ukraine, but also on Poland and Belarus. Since Moscow will not be afraid of losing gas transit to Europe, the safeguard that deterred Russia from full-scale military aggression against Ukraine will disappear. Therefore, with the launch of Nord Stream 2, the security situation in the region will deteriorate significantly, and security risks will increase sharply.

It is important for Kyiv to obtain from Berlin and Washington, first of all, not guarantees of continued gas transit after the launch of the Nord Stream 2, but security guarantees. Even if Moscow signs an agreement to extend gas transit through Ukraine, no one could be sure it would be duly implemented – we all remember the violation of the Budapest Memorandum and other international agreements.

If Germany and the United States allow Russia to bypass the Ukrainian territory in gas transit and thereby make it more vulnerable to full-scale Russian military aggression, it would be justified to provide Ukraine with some reliable security guaranties.

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Ed. Agnieszka Marcela Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl