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The deepening of further military cooperation between Russia and Belarus poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s security but also to that of European countries.
This study aims to develop effective narratives that will contribute to changing the position of Western countries regarding their attitude toward Russia’s nuclear arsenal and the possibility of its use.
Trends that are formed under the influence of critical factors create the basis for scenario development at the level of individual states and interstate relations (trend-impact effect). The identification of the cross-impact effect provides opportunities for building development scenarios for the region as a whole.
The EU has been one of the most active promoters of the Peace Formula initiative proposed by President Zelenskyy. European institutions and member states provided substantial support in the preparation for the first Global Summit on Peace in Ukraine, held in Switzerland in June 2024.
At this stage, Russia’s position on peace negotiations to end the war is based on two key factors. The first and main factor is to demonstrate exclusively maximalist conditions for both ending the war and starting negotiations
Over the past few years, NATO has begun to step out of its traditional Euro-Atlantic confines as member states and partners seek to coordinate their response to security concerns in the Indo-Pacific.
The concept of Zeitenwende, or “turning point,” has become a central pillar of Germany’s reorientation in foreign and security policy in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The invasion of Ukraine exposed significant gaps in Germany’s security strategy, forcing the country to confront uncomfortable realities. Initially introduced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Zeitenwende was framed as a decisive break from Germany’s post-Cold War strategic culture.