Prospects of Ukrainian-Polish Cooperation in the Context of Reconstruction of Ukraine

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Ivan Fechko

10/04/2024

Topics: Bilateral relations

Regions: Europe

Publications: Research

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To ensure effective cooperation between Kyiv and Warsaw in the realm of Ukrainian reconstruction, it is crucial to assess the progress of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in this regard over the past two years. This assessment should include an examination of the projects that have already been launched, what aspects have yielded successful outcomes and which have faced challenges, and what prospects can be identified for the next steps, both in the near future and in the long term, particularly after the conclusion of the war.

The policy brief was prepared within the “Bridge Analytics: Connecting Minds, Empowering Analysis” summer school by school participants and presented at the school’s final event with the support of the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” and the Mieroszewski Centre.

Authors:

Ivan Fechko, Junior Fellow, Latin American and Caribbean Research Program
Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”
Bartłomiej Banasiewicz, Student at the University of Warsaw
Marta Iliuchok, Participant of the Bridge Analytics School

Mentors:

Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Regional Initiatives and Neighbourhood Program Director, Foreign Policy Council «Ukrainian Prism»
Daniel Szeligowski, Head of the Eastern Europe Program Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)

Introduction

February 24, 2024, marked two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which became the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. During this time, Russia caused significant damage to Ukrainian infrastructure, with some settlements practically wiped off the face of the earth, and the level of destruction exceeding 90%. Cities such as Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, Lysychansk, Izyum, and others were particularly affected. More than 10% of Ukraine’s housing stock was damaged or destroyed. According to the World Bank’s calculations, the total cost for Ukraine’s recovery over the next decade amounts to at least 486 billion US dollars. Russian aggression, constant shelling of peaceful cities, and targeted attacks on infrastructure show no signs of abating. Consequently, due to the continuation of the war, these losses will steadily increase.

On the other hand, any crisis presents opportunities for qualitative changes and radical renewal. The historical experience of many countries highlights the importance of adopting the right approach to the development of a country’s reconstruction plan, which can significantly propel the country’s development beyond pre-war indicators. The most famous example of this is the reconstruction of Europe through the Marshall Plan. It is crucial not to postpone the development of plans and to begin crafting a reconstruction strategy, seeking partners and initiating projects where the security situation allows. According to many experts, the reconstruction of Ukraine has the potential to become one of the largest investment projects in history, involving more than $1 trillion.

The National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the War is a consultative and advisory body under the President of Ukraine. It developed a project of the Plan for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of Russian Aggression, which was discussed internationally at conferences held in Lugano (July 4-5, 2022), Berlin (October 25, 2022), Rome (April 26, 2023), and London (June 21-22, 2023). At the conference in London, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the foundation of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, which is feasible with the assistance of the international community, will be based on five main principles: unity, stability, development, security, and democracy.

The restoration project of Ukraine has garnered significant interest from numerous foreign partners, with the Republic of Poland holding a prominent position among them. To ensure effective cooperation between Kyiv and Warsaw in the realm of Ukrainian reconstruction, it is crucial to assess the progress of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in this regard over the past two years. This assessment should include an examination of the projects that have already been launched, what aspects have yielded successful outcomes and which have faced challenges, and what prospects can be identified for the next steps, both in the near future and in the long term, particularly after the conclusion of the war.

1. Current relations between Poland and Ukraine

Since the onset of full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine, Poland has been one of the most supportive countries, offering financial, military, diplomatic, and humanitarian assistance. Poland has welcomed several million Ukrainian refugees, providing them with access to free healthcare, a PESEL identification number, and initially, during the war, free train rides and accommodation. According to data from January 30, 2023 provided by the Border Guard since February 24, 2022, the day Russia began its full-scale aggression, over 18.8 million people from Ukraine have crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border (during this period, 16.9 million people crossed the border in the return direction). According to EU statistics, as of 31 December 2023, Poland hosted 954,795 refugees, beneficiaries of temporary protection from Ukraine, accounting for 22.1% of the total in the EU. In addition, it is important to mention the Ukrainians who lived in Poland before the start of the full-scale invasion. Alongside them, according to approximate estimates, more than 2 million Ukrainians currently live in Poland.

On July 28, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, as a sign of special gratitude to the Polish people for their solidarity and support for Ukraine, passed a law titled “On the establishment of additional legal and social guarantees for citizens of the Republic of Poland who are in the territory of Ukraine”. This law liberalizes the conditions for the stay of Polish citizens in the territory of Ukraine and establishes additional legal and social guarantees for them

One of the first countries visited by Volodymyr Zelenskyy since the start of the war was Poland. It was here, in early April 2023, that he met with representatives of the Polish government and the President of the United States, Joe Biden. During this visit, at the initiative of President Andrzej Duda, the Poland-Ukraine Economic Forum was organized. The President of Ukraine also held a meeting with the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki.

Poland is also one of the countries providing the most military equipment to Ukraine. Both countries also cooperate in economic matters – in recent years, bilateral trade has significantly increased. This is a consistent trend, which continues even during the war. Especially in the first months of the war, imports from Poland increased due to the relocation of enterprises, the search for new suppliers due to the termination of trade relations with the Russian Federation, and the sharp restriction of trade through the Black Sea due to the blockade by the Russian army. According to the data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine, Poland is one of the largest trade partners for Ukraine. In 2023, imports from Poland amounted to 6,606,426 (10.40%, second place among all countries), exports – 4,754,446 (13.14%, first place). Before the full-scale invasion, in 2021 – imports were 4,979,916 (6.79%), exports – 5,227,003 (7.68%). Thus, during this period, imports from Poland increased by 32.63%, while exports fell by 9.04%. The total trade turnover in 2021 was 10,206,919, while in 2023 it was 11,360,872. For two years, in the conditions of a full-scale war with Russia in Ukraine, there was an increase in trade turnover by 1,153,953 (11.3%).

Poland also advocates for Ukraine’s accession to international organizations such as NATO and the European Union. In pursuit of these goals, both countries have been cooperating since the first decade of the 21st century. Ukraine is also one of the candidate countries for membership in the Three Seas Initiative. Poland and Ukraine (along with Lithuania) are also joint members of the Lublin Triangle Initiative.

Contentious issues in Polish-Ukrainian relations

According to research conducted by the Mieroszewski Center, the attitude of Ukrainians towards Poles is notably worse in 2024, Mainly due to the blockade of the border by Polish farmers, who are protesting against the import of agricultural products from Ukraine (which, in their opinion, causes the price of agricultural products to fall) and European agricultural policy. According to the Ukrainian side, such actions cause significant damage to the state’s economy in wartime conditions and violate international trade law. In January 2024, 44.5% of Ukrainian respondents indicated a positive opinion of Poland, compared to 67% three months earlier. During Donald Tusk’s visit to Kyiv at the end of January 2024, which took place with the main purpose of synchronizing efforts and coordinating priorities between the two nations, discussions on the border blockade and the admission of Ukrainian carriers also held significant importance.

Another issue causing conflicts in the diplomatic relations between the two countries is their approach to historical events, such as the tragedy in Volyn in 1943. Despite reconciliation gestures since the presidency of Aleksander Kwaśniewski, this issue remains unresolved and has been the subject of many diplomatic disputes. Nevertheless, President Duda said that Ukraine and Poland are converging their positions in understanding complex historical topics, and on July 9, 2023, the presidents of both countries together commemorated the events of 1943 in Lutsk.

Summary

Despite tensions related to border blockades and differences in historical matters, Polish-Ukrainian relations can be assessed as positive. In Poland, as of late 2023, there are around several million Ukrainian citizens who have been issued PESEL numbers and granted access to free healthcare. According to statistics from the same year, over 30,000 individuals from Ukraine have started their own businesses in Poland and one out of every ten new businesses launched in the country is under Ukrainian ownership. Visits by key politicians from both countries to neighboring nations continue to occur. In addition to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Brussels, notable visits to Ukraine in 2024 include those by Andrzej Szeptycki, Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland, and Paweł Kowal, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Polish Parliament.

Initiatives such as mutual support in digitalization and joint economic forums are also being organized. In near future, the focus should primarily be on finding a common solution to the border blockade issue between the two countries. Following the end of the war, efforts should be directed towards assisting in the reconstruction of Ukraine, with subsequent attention given to disputes in historical policies.

2. Poland-Ukraine Cooperation on Reconstruction

Reconstruction of Ukraine is already among the priorities of the Ukrainian government. In April 2022, a presidential decree established the National Recovery Council for the Consequences of War, which consists of 24 working groups in relevant areas. In the same year, the first draft of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) was presented, the implementation of which is estimated at $750 billion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Poland will be among the main partners in the reconstruction of Ukraine. Highlighting Poland in a prominent place among partners, he noted that with the expulsion of Russian aggressors from Ukraine, opportunities will be opened for further mutual economic development. “We want Poland and Ukraine to be without borders,” said Mr. Zelenskyy.

During his first visit to Ukraine since his election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the appointment of Paweł Kowal as the Special plenipotentiary for the Reconstruction of Ukraine. Prior to that, Jadwiga Emilewicz fulfilled similar roles as a plenipotentiary for development assistance. However, the appointment of a separate official with such responsibilities, as has been done in the USA, France, the Czech Republic, and other partner countries, is an important step that will allow for the systematic adjustment of reconstruction projects and the activation of new processes.

Mr. Kowal noted that Poland will provide special insurance for its businesses during the war, will direct investment funds from specialized institutions to projects of small firms, and to large firms from the Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. The main areas in which Polish representatives are interested are construction, infrastructure (mentioning the construction of the motorway and the Odesa-Brody-Gdansk oil pipeline among major projects), and energy.

Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan specifies specific initiatives related to the Republic of Poland. In particular, this includes a large infrastructure plan in Program No. 9, “Logistics and Communication,” which involves the beginning of the construction of a “freight corridor” to Klaipeda through Poland. Additionally, in the program “Strengthen Integrated Energy System Resilience,” there is network development in Poland. The National Program No. 13, “Modernization of the Healthcare System to Strengthen Human Capital,” is based on the experience and indicators of Poland, which obviously requires close cooperation with Poland in this direction.

It is worth noting that the infrastructural projects identified in the reconstruction plan, which are related to Poland, can be integrated into certain relevant Three Seas Initiative (3SI) priority projects. In particular, this concerns the project on Diversification of gas supply sources and integration of gas infrastructure in the Three Seas Region, which includes the implementation of the Baltic Pipe project and cross-border relations between the Republic of Poland and Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine will be able to connect to the Polish part of the Via Carpatia transit highway, which aims to connect the countries of South-Eastern Europe. Furthermore, as part of the reconstruction, companies can utilize such infrastructure projects as the Danube – Oder – Elbe Connection, Rail Baltica, and the Amber Rail Freight Corridor.

The program “Clean and Protected Environment” as part of Ukraine’s recovery plan provides for measures to restore and reconstruct Ukraine’s environment. Poland demonstrates good indicators of transitioning to green electricity (currently at 20% of all production), making it a potential area for partnership within the framework of sustainable development between countries.

Based on the specialization of the main companies demonstrating their interest in involvement in the reconstruction of Ukraine (participation in relevant forums, exhibitions, and conferences, as detailed in the appendix), the following main areas can be distinguished:

Architecture and Construction (Network of experts in architecture, customizable modular buildings for various purposes (housing, offices, hospitals, schools, etc.); construction of steel pavilions; manufacturer of modern modular buildings for diverse purposes; manufacturer of chimney systems, stoves, and integrated ventilation system solutions; manufacturer of machines for processing; steel sheets; wall panels; skylights.
Manufacturing and Processing: (Aluminium, brass, bronze foundry, and mechanical processing; Manufacturer of heating containers, chemical additive containers, workshop and storage containers, water heaters; Manufacturer of gas heating equipment; Manufacturer of chimney systems, stoves, and integrated ventilation system solutions; Manufacturer of machines for processing; Production and sale of machines and equipment for agriculture, communal services, and the transport industry).
Infrastructure and Utilities (Innovative roofing and waterproofing systems; Flexible pipe systems for hot and cold water applications; Siphons, ladders; Pumping equipment, products for wastewater, and rainwater; Products for the sewage system; Compressors, blowers, controllers; Complete mobile and stationary batching plants, concrete mixers, screw conveyors, filters, butterfly and gate valves, parts for mixers of all manufacturers.
Chemical Products (Cosmetic chemistry, Workshop chemistry, Adhesives, and sealants).
Logistics services.
Security systems.

Such companies can also participate in programs announced in the reconstruction plan, such as the program called “Restoration and Modernization of Social Infrastructure”. For example, they could be involved in the installation of gas boilers for autonomous heating of public buildings, installation of heat pumps for heating and cooling of public buildings, conservation of damaged buildings, and other related directions.

Poland became an important partner in hosting the highest-level events on the reconstruction of Ukraine. On May 5, 2022, Poland, together with Sweden, organized the High-Level International Donors Conference for Ukraine at the National Stadium in Warsaw. The event was attended by heads of states and governments, as well as representatives of international organizations. This conference marked the first of its kind aimed at coordinating aid efforts for Ukraine.

Afterward, Poland participated in other events, such as the International Conference on the Reconstruction of Ukraine in July 2022 in Lugano and in London in June 2023. These conferences were a continuation of the cycle of events that began in London in 2017 as the International Conference on Reforms in Ukraine (Ukraine Reform Conference).

In Warsaw, under the patronage of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine and in cooperation with the Polish Ministry of Development and Technology, four “Rebuild Ukraine powered by energy” conferences have already taken place. These offline platforms aim to combine reconstruction projects, materials, technologies, equipment, and investments necessary for the reconstruction of the war-torn economy of Ukraine. Emphasis is placed on infrastructure, industry, energy, and housing. The next event is scheduled for November 13-14, 2024.

The International exhibition & conference “Rebuild Ukraine: health & rehabilitation” is also being held with the aim of rehabilitating human potential and rebuilding the medical infrastructure. The reconstruction of this infrastructure in the coming years is estimated at $16.4 billion. The next, already the third such exhibition, is planned for June 24-25, 2024.

These projects serve as the main platforms for discussing cooperation between Ukraine and Poland in the context of reconstruction and create opportunities for exchanging ideas, finding new contacts, and planning projects directly at the stakeholder level. This includes engagement with local communities, who are present with their delegations and identified needs for reconstruction (currently, 26 communities are represented at the pavilion).

One of the tried and tested formats for the reconstruction of Ukraine involved the stewardship (укр. шефство) of partner countries in regions affected by Russian aggression. In addition to financing infrastructure and reconstruction projects, these countries had to share their expertise and the experience of their companies. Among 30 countries, Poland received an offer to take care of a certain region, and together with Italy, it was offered the Donetsk region. According to People’s Deputy of Ukraine Kira Rudyk, this is because the Donetsk region is “the most difficult region,” and therefore the Ukrainian authorities wanted to rely on Poland, “which knows what reconstruction is like after the war.”

In this context, a misunderstanding arose between the parties, as Poland had expressed its desire to contribute to the reconstruction of the Kharkiv region from the outset. In early March 2024, Polish representatives indicated their intention to bolster their involvement in the reconstruction efforts of Kharkiv Oblast and to enhance cooperation in projects already underway in the region.

Nevertheless, the format of intensifying work with local communities is effective. In this manner, Zhytomyr concluded a cooperation agreement with the Metropolis of Polish Cities and receives assistance from its sister cities of Gdańsk, Gdynia, and Sopot. Among the identified priorities are the utility sector, support of energy systems, and the experience of developing European investments.

In July 2023, a Forum of Ukrainian and Polish cities was held to involve Polish cities in the reconstruction of Ukraine. The declaration of cooperation with Polish cities was signed by representatives of the Ukrainian cities of Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Mariupol, Kherson, Kropyvnytskyi, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk.

After the Russians blew up the Kakhovskaya HPP in June 2023, Poland took over the flooded village of Ingulets in the Kherson region. In general, the format of reconstructing a specific settlement remains a promising direction of cooperation because it enables Poland, as a donor country, to apply its own approach to this process, directly control it, and competently manage resources in communication with local authorities.

In April 2023, during a meeting with the Minister of Education Oksen Lisovyi, the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Poland to Ukraine, Bartosz Cichocki, assured of Poland’s readiness to restore damaged and destroyed educational institutions. According to the saveschools.in.ua portal, at the moment, Russian troops have completely destroyed 365 educational institutions in Ukraine, and 3728 have been damaged.

One of the reasons Poland is striving to maintain a leading role in the reconstruction process is its status as the main transit country for Ukraine, a position it is likely to retain in the years to come. Many reconstruction projects, including those carried out in cooperation with other EU countries, will be directly interconnected with Poland.

Currently, Poland is among the leaders in providing financial aid to Ukraine. According to data from the Kiel Institute for World Economy, the total amount of obligations is 4.341 billion euros, ranking 7th in the world. This constitutes 0.675% of the country’s GDP, with most of this aid being military (€3.036bn), followed by financial (€0.959bn) and humanitarian assistance (€0.347bn).

Summary

The reconstruction of Ukraine has become one of the primary focal points of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation. Over the two years since the onset of the full-scale invasion, Poland has actively engaged in various reconstruction projects, including assistance in rebuilding towns and villages in areas that have been liberated. Demonstrating the significance of this collaboration, the Polish government has appointed a special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan encompasses projects that involve Poland. Polish stakeholders have displayed keen interest in this process, participating in relevant exhibitions. Representatives from various sectors such as Architecture and Construction, Manufacturing and Processing, Infrastructure and Utilities, among others, have been actively involved.

3. Opportunities and challenges for Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the process of rebuilding Ukraine

Ukrainian and foreign organizations have assessed the damage caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in different ways. The estimated cost of reconstruction varies from $486 billion (according to estimates by the World Bank) to $750 billion (according to estimates by the Government of Ukraine), and this figure is expected to continue rising as the war progresses. However, such a dramatic situation also creates opportunities as well as challenges for Ukrainian partners to participate in this process. In this paragraph, we will dwell on the difficulties and opportunities that may arise in the context of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation for recovery.

Opportunities

Short-Term opportunities:

Immediate Humanitarian Assistance: Poland provides immediate humanitarian aid to address urgent needs in Ukraine, such as shelter, food, and medical supplies, especially in conflict-affected areas.
Emergency Infrastructure Repair: Poland can offer expertise and resources for emergency infrastructure repair in areas heavily impacted by conflict or natural disasters. This may include repairing roads, bridges, and basic utilities to restore essential services and facilitate access for humanitarian aid delivery.
Capacity Building and Training: Poland can provide short-term training programs and capacity-building initiatives to Ukrainian professionals involved not only in reconstruction efforts, but also in training and experience exchange for public officers and representatives of NGOs. This could include workshops on project management, infrastructure development, and governance practices to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of reconstruction projects.
Trainings on operating and management of large-scale projects financed by the EU, exchange of experience and joint work on such projects.
The immediate development of joint projects for the reconstruction of Ukraine strengthens economic ties between the countries, thereby weakening destabilizing factors that seek to harm Ukrainian-Polish relations.

Long-Term opportunities:

A large number of Ukrainian refugees, forced to live in Poland due to the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukrainian regions and unable to return home due to unfavorable security conditions, can become important contributors to the country’s cooperation within the framework of reconstruction, participating in joint projects at various levels. Ukrainian organizations and associations, serving as the soft power of Ukraine, are potentially significant stakeholders in this process.
Infrastructure Development: Poland can play a significant role in the long-term reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine’s infrastructure, including roads, railways, energy networks, and utilities. Leveraging its experience and resources, Poland can contribute to sustainable development and economic growth in Ukraine in the long term, benefiting both countries. With Poland’s assistance, Ukraine can be integrated into the Trans-European Networks, particularly the Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T), as well as the Trans-European Energy Networks (TEN-Energy) and Trans-European Telecommunications Networks (eTEN).
Investment in key sectors: Poland can make long-term investments in key sectors of Ukraine’s economy, such as manufacturing, technology, and renewable energy. This can help stimulate job creation, promote innovation, and diversify Ukraine’s economy away from dependence on traditional industries.
People-to-people ties: Investing in long-term people-to-people ties between Poland and Ukraine through cultural exchanges, educational programs, and youth initiatives can foster lasting friendships and cooperation.
Ukraine and Poland are members of several important integration associations, such as the Lublin Triangle (Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine), the British–Polish–Ukrainian Trilateral, the Ukraine – Poland – Romania triangle, and the Three Seas Initiative (Ukraine as a Partner-participant). The reconstruction of Ukraine should become one of the key priorities of these alliances, which will allow for the attraction of additional resources and further strengthen cooperation between the participating countries. This initiative will serve as an example of the synergy in building these alliances in general.

Challenges

The challenges of reconstruction vary from those created by continuing hostilities and missile attack to political struggles both in Ukraine and Poland.

Short-Term challenges:

Security risks: Engaging in reconstruction efforts in Ukraine’s conflict-affected regions presents short-term security risks for Polish personnel and assets. Managing security concerns, including the risk of violence and instability, is crucial to ensure the safety and effectiveness of reconstruction efforts.
Corruption and governance issues: Corruption and governance challenges in Ukraine or in Poland can pose immediate obstacles to effective reconstruction efforts. Ensuring transparency, accountability, and integrity in the allocation and management of reconstruction funds is essential to mitigate the risk of corruption and maximize the impact of assistance. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Ukraine ranks 104th out of 180 countries with a score of 36 out of 100. Despite being in the midst of war conditions, Ukraine has shown positive trends, rising 18 positions in the rating over the past two years. On the other hand, Poland occupies the 47th position but has dropped 5 positions in the rating over the same two-year period.
Logistical constraints: In the short term, Poland may face logistical challenges in delivering humanitarian aid and mobilizing resources for reconstruction projects in Ukraine. Limited transportation infrastructure, bureaucratic hurdles, and coordination issues can hinder the timely delivery of assistance and implementation of projects.
The elections in Poland and the internal political struggle have already had negative consequences for Ukrainian-Polish relations from the Ukrainian perspective. The issue of relations with Ukraine may be irrationally exploited by politicians for their own ratings and to attract voters. The upcoming elections in Poland provide opportunities for certain politicians to exploit the Ukrainian issue for their own interests. These include the Polish Local Government Elections on April 7, 2024, the European Parliament election on June 9, 2024, and the Polish presidential election on May 18, 2025.

Long-Term challenges:

Competition with Other Global Players. After the end of active hostilities in Ukraine, the restoration of the country will undoubtedly become a highly attractive project for major world players interested in both investments and providing their expertise to carry out various works. Several countries, including Turkey, Japan, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, EU countries, and others, have already declared their ambitions. Even China or India may express interest. Therefore, Poland’s role in the restoration of Ukraine will depend on the advantages of cooperation and the conditions it can offer to win competition with other countries.
The process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU. In conjunction with the official support of the Polish authorities for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and positive indicators from surveys, Poland has already articulated its negotiating position on certain issues. They stated they would block this accession if issues related to agriculture were not resolved. These, along with other issues, will become the subject of large and complex discussions that may affect both Ukrainian-Polish relations in general and Poland’s participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction in particular.
Destabilization of Europe. Recently, the EU has been experiencing a state of political and security crisis, which, without proper management and structural reforms, could evolve into an existential threat to European institutions. Authoritarian tendencies in certain countries, the increasing popularity of Eurosceptics, a lack of unanimous positions among member states on international issues, migration problems, and hybrid threats from Russia are among the key challenges facing the European Union. These challenges also directly impact the process of rebuilding Ukraine and Poland’s participation in it. In the context of threats arising from internal disputes within the EU, it is worth mentioning the competition between Germany and Poland and the recent disputes that have arisen between their respective governments. These disputes primarily concerned issues such as migration, energy, or military aid to Ukraine.
The growing risk of Russian invasion of EU countries. Experts and military leaders from NATO countries are increasingly openly discussing the threat of a direct Russian invasion, particularly targeting EU countries such as the Baltic states or Poland. This invasion could take the form of a continuation of Russian aggression seen in Ukraine, especially if Ukraine does not receive sufficient resources for defense. Alternatively, it could occur several years after the end of the war in Ukraine , allowing the Russian Federation to rebuild its forces and accumulate resources for a new war. It is evident that the issue of Ukrainian-Polish reconstruction cooperation must be closely linked to the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine. This entails the involvement of NATO structures, joint efforts in developing the security system, and the creation of modern military infrastructure and production capabilities. These measures will not only bolster the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank but also serve to counter the potential threat of Russian aggression against EU countries.

Summary

Poland holds significant opportunities in participating in Ukraine’s reconstruction, driven by its strategic location, historical connections, and expertise. Engaging in Ukraine’s reconstruction presents both short-term and long-term prospects, including infrastructure development, investment and trade facilitation, technology transfer, humanitarian assistance, and cultural exchange. However, challenges such as security risks, corruption, resource constraints, political sensitivities, and the need for long-term sustainability require careful navigation and coordination. By effectively addressing these challenges and capitalizing on opportunities, Poland can make a valuable contribution to Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts, fostering economic growth, stability, and cooperation in the region. To successfully attract Polish stakeholders, Ukraine must offer suitable conditions and opportunities for business.

4. Recommendations

In order to intensify Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the context of Ukraine’s reconstruction, based on comprehensive analysis, the following recommendations can be provided:

Reduce tension in relations and transition to a pragmatic policy built on mutual benefit and dialogue.
Use the experience gained from improving France-Germany and Germany–Poland relations, as well as other practices of neighborly relations in Europe, to overcome conflicting points in relationships based on a commitment to European integration and mutual trust in the implementation of agreements.
Poland’s advocacy for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO is crucial. The European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, within the framework of reconstructing Ukraine as a modern European state, will facilitate Ukraine and Poland assuming leadership roles on the Eastern flank of the EU and NATO, thereby creating a balance in relation to Western Europe.
In the process of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation within the context of reconstruction, both parties should strive to combat corruption effectively, employ transparent mechanisms, and establish competitive and equitable conditions for all participants involved in the process.
Create a Ukrainian-Polish reconstruction group tasked with preparing infrastructure projects and overseeing cooperation in this regard between the governments of both countries.
Hold regular forums on the reconstruction of Ukraine in Warsaw and Kyiv, involving interested representatives from third countries in this format.
Instead of practicing patronage over a large territory, transition to direct cooperation between Polish cities/regions and Ukrainian counterparts in need of assistance, within the context of aid.
To implement reconstruction efforts, incorporate modern technologies, digitization, cutting-edge scientific discoveries, and intensify as well as diversify various sectors of the economy.
Enhance inter-parliamentary mechanisms within the context of cooperation between countries for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Utilize Poland’s potential as a transport hub and gateway to the common infrastructure of the EU. It is crucial for the Polish government to ensure uninterrupted operation of transport connections and maintain an appropriate level of security in cooperation with Ukrainian colleagues.
Include the process of rebuilding Ukraine as an important and mutually beneficial component of Ukraine’s accession to the EU
Establish joint educational projects and foster collaboration between scientific institutions and universities in Ukraine and Poland, leveraging their existing close ties, to drive reconstruction efforts based on modern technologies and scientific discoveries.
One of the key focuses of the reconstruction process should be on the military sphere, including joint projects, weapons development, and the military-industrial complex. This is essential in light of the ongoing Russian threat and as part of Ukraine’s accession to NATO to bolster NATO’s Eastern flank.

5. Conclusions

To sum up, the prospects for Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the context of Ukraine’s reconstruction are promising and multifaceted. The two nations share historical ties, cultural similarities, and strategic geographic locations that can be leveraged to facilitate bilateral cooperation in the context of reconstruction. Despite certain differences in approaches to history and recent disputes on the border, Poland remains an important ally of Ukraine in terms of resistance to Russian aggression. Additionally, the countries are significant trading partners, with a total trade turnover of more than $11 billion.

In the two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland has already participated in numerous reconstruction projects in Ukraine. Polish cities have forged agreements for cooperation in reconstruction with Ukrainian cities and communities, particularly with Zhytomyr, Kryvyi Rih, and Ingulets. Poland has also been involved in the restoration of educational institutions.

The importance of cooperation between both countries in the context of reconstruction has been emphasized by the political leaders of both states. This year, the Polish government announced the appointment of Paweł Kowal as the Special representative for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, underscoring the significance of this direction of cooperation for Warsaw. Poland has identified key areas of interest for participation, including construction, infrastructure, and energy. These projects align with those outlined in Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan, further highlighting the synergy between the two countries. Based on these initiatives, we can identify the main groups of Polish companies interested in participating in Ukraine’s reconstruction, including Architecture and Construction, Manufacturing and Processing, Infrastructure and Utilities, Chemical Products, Logistics Services, and Security Systems [See Appendix].

Cooperation between Ukraine and Poland in the context of Ukrainian reconstruction opens up a number of opportunities, both in the short-term (restoration of critical infrastructure, joint educational programs, the positive effect of cooperation in the field of reconstruction on the general background of relations), and in the long-term – joining European infrastructure projects, the use of leasing of Polish construction equipment and insurance companies, the use of the factor of Ukrainian refugees in Poland, the development of joint integration associations (Lublin Triangle (Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine), the British–Polish–Ukrainian Trilateral, the Ukraine – Poland – Romania triangle, and the Three Seas Initiative (Ukraine as a Partner-participant).

At the same time, it is crucial to acknowledge and prepare for the challenges that countries may encounter in this process. In the short term, the primary threats include the security situation due to ongoing Russian aggression, corruption factors, and political discussions amidst elections. Looking ahead in the long term, challenges will involve discussions regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU, destabilization processes in Europe, and the threat of expanding Russian aggression. It is noteworthy that the development of joint projects in the format of Ukraine’s reconstruction enhances countries’ readiness to confront these challenges and strengthens their relations, ultimately having a positive impact on the economic and security situation.

In conclusion, despite the challenges and complexities that undoubtedly exist, the prospects of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation in the context of Ukraine’s reconstruction are promising. By leveraging their historical ties, shared values, and complementary strengths, both nations can collaborate to unlock new opportunities, overcome obstacles, and build a brighter future for their citizens and the wider region.

Appendix 1. List of agencies involved in the process of rebuilding Ukraine in the context of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation

№	Name	Country	Additional information	Contacts
1.	Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego	Poland	Polish development bank	https://www.bgk.pl/ bgk@bgk.pl
2.	IGEOS	Poland	Economic organization representing Polish power industry enterprises	www.igeos.pl sekretariat@igeos.pl
3.	Italian chamber of commerce and industry in Poland	Italy	Association of entrepreneurs that represent Italian companies and investments in the region	https://cciip.pl/ katowice@cciip.pl
4.	Italian trade agency – Warsaw office	Italy	Agency that supports the business development of Italian companies abroad and promotes the attraction of foreign investment in Italy	https://www.ice.it/en/markets/poland/warszawa varsavia@ice.it
5.	KUKE	Poland	Experts in trade insurance and trade finance	https://kuke.com.pl/en kontakt@kuke.com.pl
6.	Polish Association of Designers and Engineers (ZOPI)	Poland	Protection of the interests of engineers and designers.	https://www.zopi.org/ biuro@zopi.org
7.	Polish Investment And Trade Agency	Poland	Contacts for exporters and investors operating in dozens of markets globally	https://www.paih.gov.pl/en/ paih24@paih.gov.pl
8.	Polish-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine	Poland	Center of knowledge, support and exchange of experiences and contacts that contribute to the development of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation	https://www.pol-ukr.com/en/ info@pol-ukr.com
9.	Polski Zwiazek Pracodawcow Budownictwa	Poland	Association of construction employers	https://pzpb.com.pl/ sekretariat@pzpb.com.pl

Appendix 2. List of companies involved in the process of rebuilding Ukraine in the context of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation

№	Name	Country	Additional information	Contacts
1.	ADJATECH METALWORKING Sp Z.o.o	Poland	Aluminium, brass, bronze foundry and mechanical processing	https://adjatech.pl/en/adjatech-eng/ biuro@adjatech.pl
2.	AHP INTERNATIONAL, SP. Z O.O.	Germany	Providers of global business development, strategic consulting, export support and FDI advisory	https://ahp-international.com/ office@ahp-international.com warsaw@ahp-international.com
3.	ALGECO POLSKA SP.Z O.O	Poland	Customizable modular buildings for: housing, mobile offices, construction site accommodation, hospitals, schools etc	https://algeco.pl/ info.pl@algeco.com
4.	BMI Polska	Poland	Innovative roofing and waterproofing systems; Comprehensive solutions for pitched and flat roofs (Braas, Icopal)	https://www.bmigroup.com/pl/ support_pl@bmigroup.com
5.	BORGA	Poland	Construction of steel pavilions	https://www.borga.com/ info@borga.se
6.	BRUGG Pipes	Poland	Flexible pipe systems for hot and cold water applications	www.bruggpipes.com infopl.bsr@brugg.com
7.	DB SCHENKER	Germany	Logistics	www.dbschenker.com
8.	DWD SYSTEM SP. Z O. O.	Poland	Siphons, ladders	https://dwdsystem.pl/ niewiadow@dwdsystem.pl
9.	ECOL-UNICON	Poland	Pumping equipment, products for wastewater and rainwater	https://en.ecol-unicon.com/ export@ecol-unicon.com
10.	FAKRO	Poland	Skylights	https://www.fakro.com/
11.	FERMAX Polska Sp. z o.o.	Poland	Security systems	www.fermax.com fermax@fermax.pl
12.	GRAFEN PROFESSIONAL	Poland	Cosmetic chemistry, Workshop chemistry, Adhesives and sealants	https://grafenprofessional.eu/en/ info@grafenprofessional.eu
13.	HAPAM Poland Sp. z o.o.	Poland	Energy (producer of high voltage disconnectors)	https://www.hapam.pl/ hapam@hapam.pl
14.	JANMET SP.Z.O.O	Poland	Fences	www.janmet-panele.pl info@janmet-panele.pl
15.	KAESER KOMPRESSOREN LLC	Germany	Compressors, blowers, controllers	https://www.kaeser.com/int-en +54 (3327) 41 4800
16.	KINGSPAN WATER & ENERGY SP. Z O. O.	Great Britain	Wall panels	https://www.kingspan.com/pl/pl/ klargester-web@kingspan.com
17.	LAURIDSEN SOLUTIONS PL Sp. z o.o.	Poland	Products for the sewage system	https://www.lauridsen.pl/ info@lauridsen.pl
18.	LEIMRO SP Z O.O.	Poland	Manufacturer of heating containers, chemical additive containers, workshop and storage containers, water heaters	https://leimro.com/ info@leimro.com
19.	MODULAR SYSTEM SP. Z O.O.	Poland	Manufacturer of modern modular buildings of a diverse nature: residential, office, educational, administrative, medical, military, etc	https://modularsystem.pl/en/home/ biuro@modularsystem.pl
20.	OZB CONCRETE BATCHING PLANT EQUIPMENT	Poland	Complete mobile and stationary batching plants, concrete mixers, screw conveyors, filters, butterfly and gate valves, parts for mixers of all manufacturers	https://www.ozb.org.pl/ biuro@ozb.org.pl
21.	PRONAR Ltd.	Poland	Production and sale of machines and equipment for agriculture, communal services, as well as the transport industry	https://pronar.pl/en/ pronar@pronar.pl
22.	SCHIEDEL	Germany	Manufacturer of chimney systems, stoves and integrated ventilation system solutions	https://www.schiedel.com/pl/ biuro@schiedel.com
23.	STOLARCZYK SPOLKA Z.O.O	Poland	Manufacturer of machines for the processing	https://spolkastolarczyk.pl/pl/ biuro@spolkastolarczyk.pl
24.	TERMET S.A. FERRO GROUP	Poland	Manufacturer of gas heating equipment	https://ferro-group.pl/ info@ferro.pl
25.	UNIVERSAL STAL SP. Z O.O	Poland	Steel sheets	http://universal-stal.pl/ handel@universal-stal.pl
26.	VELUX Commercial Polska sp. z o.o.	Poland	Skylights	https://commercial.velux.pl/ info@veluxcommercial.pl

Appendix 3. List of NGOs involved in the process of rebuilding Ukraine in the context of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation

№	Name	Country	Additional information	Contacts
1.	Association of Ukrainians in Poland	Poland	Public organization of the Ukrainian minority in Poland	https://ukraincy.org.pl/ sekretariat@ukraincy.org.pl
2.	Dobrobat Project	Ukraine	Dobrobat is a volunteer construction battalion that assists the survivors in the de-occupied territories in the urgent restoration of housing and social infrastructure	https://www.dobrobat.in.ua/en/
3.	Friends of Medyka	Poland	NGO formed from different nationalities volunteering in Poland to support refugees fleeing from Ukraine	https://friendsofmedyka.com/
4.	Polish Center for International Aid	Poland	Providing aid to the victims of armed conflicts and natural disasters	https://pcpm.org.pl/en/about-us/support-us/ info@pcpm.org.pl
6.	Project HOPE	Poland	Project HOPE is helping Ukrainians in Poland access primary and mental health care.	https://www.projecthope.org/country/poland/ donorservices@projecthope.org.
7.	Razem	Poland	Social organizations for Poland and Ukraine – is an initiative serving aid organizations	https://forumrazem.org.pl/ ngoforum@pah.org.pl
8.	Ro3kvit	Ukraine	Network of experts in architecture	https://ro3kvit.com/ office@ro3kvit.com