The analysis of the Minsk agreements implementation demonstrates that despite a few steps forward, the systematic violation of certain clauses as well as serious manipulation of the others by the so-called ‘Donetsk People Republic’/ ‘Luhansk People Republic’ (‘DPR’/‘LPR’) combatants and the Russian Federation has been observed and confirmed by the international community.
Hanna Shelest and Dmytro Shulga for UA:Ukraine Analytica
Lifting international sanctions seems the only incentive for Russia to comply with the Minsk agreements. Its current tactic involves partial implementation, which would help to apply for easing sanctions and thus to decrease the cost of its waging war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia preserves the possibility to re-escalate the currently lowintensity-conflict at any convenient moment.
Following the military occupation and illegal annexation of the Crimea in February–March 2014, Russia continued to destabilise Ukraine. The armed conflict in Donbas, a region in the Eastern Ukraine in immediate vicinity to the Russian border, was triggered by the Russian security service officers in spring 20141. Since then the conflict was continued with steady inflows of fighters and weapons from the territory of the Russian Federation and eventually with a direct aggression by the Russian regular armed forces on Ukrainian soil, which was the only way to save Russia’s proxies.
At present, as a result of this, 1/3 of Donbas region (part of Luhansk and Donetsk regions) or less than 3% of the Ukrainian territory is controlled by the so called ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (‘DPR’) and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ (‘LPR’) combatants, not by the Ukrainian government.
The first Western sanctions after the annexation of the Crimea in March 2014 appeared to be weak and sent a misleading message to the Kremlin. Then, however, the evidences of the Russian interference in the Ukrainian internal affairs, the violation of its territorial integrity and support of the separatist movements were too vivid to ignore and not to take respectful actions to confirm the EU’s own adherence to the democratic values and principles of the international law.
The analysis of the Minsk agreements implementation (a common name for a package of documents adopted in September 2014 and February 2015 aiming to resolve a current crisis in the Eastern region of Ukraine) demonstrates that despite a few steps forward, the systematic violation of certain clauses as well as serious manipulation of the others by the so-called ‘Donetsk People Republic’/ ‘Luhansk People Republic’ (‘DPR’/‘LPR’) combatants and the Russian Federation has been observed and confirmed by the international community. Lifting international sanctions seems the only incentive for Russia to comply with the Minsk agreements. Its current tactic involves partial implementation, which would help to apply for easing sanctions and thus to decrease the cost of its waging war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia preserves the possibility to re-escalate the currently lowintensity-conflict at any convenient moment.
On 27 June 2014, the European Council presented a set of requirements that could postpone the introduction of the economic sanctions against Russia. Among these requirements there were an agreement on a verification mechanism for the ceasefire and for the effective control of the border, monitored by the OSCE; a returned control of three state-border checkpoints (Izvarino, Dolzhanskiy, Krasnopartizansk) under the Ukrainian authorities; a release of hostages including all of the OSCE observers (captured by combatants at that time); a launch of substantial negotiations on the implementation of the President Poroshenko’s peace plan2. Given that Russia failed to respond to these demands of the European Council (except of the OSCE monitors’ release), on 31 July 2014 the Council of the EU introduced a package of economic sanctions (restrictive measures targeting sectoral cooperation and exchanges with the Russian Federation) with a view to increasing the costs of Russia’s actions to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence and to promoting a peaceful settlement of the crisis.
In February 2015, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany negotiated a package of measures to alleviate the ongoing war in the Donbas region of Ukraine (implementation of the Minsk protocol dealt in September 2014).
In March 2015, the European Council agreed that the duration of the economic/sectoral measures against Russia shall be linked to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreements,
which still remain the principle reference documents for the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine. They were supported by the US, the EU and the UN Security Council. Thus, the connection of the EU sanctions with Minsk agreements implementation looks quite logical. ‘Minsk agreements’ is a common name for a package of documents adopted in September 2014 and February 2015. ‘Minsk-1’ refers to September 2014 agreements – Protocol on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE with participation of the separatist leaders) dated 5 September 2014 and a subsequent Memorandum dated 19 September 2014. These documents contained provisions on establishing a cease-fire, the withdrawal of the heavy weapons, the withdrawal of the illegal combatants, a prohibition for drones except those owned by the OSCE etc. The ceasefire of September 2014 was heavily violated by separatists’ forces, leading to a significant increase of the area not controlled by the Ukrainian government by February 2015. ‘Minsk-2’ commonly refers to the ‘Package of measures for the implementation of Minsk Agreements’ signed on 12 February 2015 by the Trilateral Contact Group representatives (Ukraine, Russia and OSCE) and the leaders of the separatists5. The content of Minsk-2 was negotiated at 16 hours long ‘Normandy format’ summit in Minsk between the Presidents of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Chancellor of Germany, who issued a declaration in support of the package.