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The Belarusian democratic forces have achieved certain successes in terms of developing government-like structures and keeping the Belarusian issue on the agenda of European states. To continue further institutionalization and be prepared for the transformation period, there is a need to train a new generation of officials who could take over the state in the future.
2024 will be a year of relative strengthening of President Putin’s regime. As a result, the Russian president will further move away from the role of referee in relations between influence groups within Russian political elites.
After the beginning of the large-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, the strategic importance of Belarus, which remains the only Russian formal ally in Europe, has significantly increased. Due to this, there is a need to increase attention and efforts of Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania aimed at reducing Russian influence in Belarus and creating prerequisites for possible democratic transformations.