Trends 2024: LATIN-AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Regional politics throughout Latin America and the Caribbean would be influenced by four main interconnected dimensions: electoral, socio-economic, environmental and a dimension of foreign interference

KEY INDICATORS

Regional politics throughout Latin America and the Caribbean would be influenced by four main interconnected dimensions: electoral, socio-economic, environmental and a dimension of foreign interference.

• Countries in the region will hold several elections throughout 2024, which may demonstrate political balance and status quo preservation. While political continuity is important for implementing long-term projects and tackling strategic issues, it might also result in authoritarianism persistence, taking into account upcoming elections in El Salvador, which might violate the local rule of law and Maduro’s reign in Venezuela.
• Youth issues have become one of the most popular among Latin American policymakers as there is no doubt that young people, due to demographic reasons, could make local economies, if not thrive, then at least succeed. Governments would likely concentrate on countering the brain drain and empowering youth agenda. While new policies to counter brain drain may prove effective, the current situation in the field of youth empowerment and youth well-being remains complicated: negative repercussions of failed youth policies can be quite destructive. For instance, the high number of poor and extremely poor young citizens is clearing the path for non-governmental actors’ establishment. New terrorist and criminal groups and revitalisation of old left/right-wing insurgency movements could be just a matter of time if youth throughout the continent view illegal activities as the most simple and effective way of achieving their ambitions.
• Some actions to prevent the above scenario could be taken through the MERCOSUR cooperative agenda, especially when negotiating a free trade agreement with the European Union. Success in building closer economic ties within and beyond Latin America and the Caribbean may improve overall well-being and prevent the aforementioned negative repercussions.
• Environmental challenges could also affect the social and economic state of Latin America. That’s why the prevalence of climate agenda can be observed. Local countries, especially those that heavily rely on agriculture, could benefit and lose assets due to unpredictable climatic phenomena in the Pacific.
• The Chinese factor. Will China take an aggressive or more relaxed stance towards its ambitions in Latin America? Chinese competitiveness and the possibility of turning economic ties into political influence could damage regional stability. A combination of authoritarian persistence and Chinese influence can severely undermine democracies across the continent. Key instruments to tackle this may be found in ensuring sustainable economic development and improvements in the social sphere, such as the aforementioned youth empowerment.

SCENARIOS

STABLE SYSTEM. BUEN CLIMA

Political balance and status quo after the elections. Latin America is heading into another busy and important election year, which will be notable for putting an end, at least temporarily, to the anti-incumbency wave that has swept through the region in recent years. Next year voters will go to the polls in Sint Maarten (January), El Salvador (February), the Dominican Republic (May), Panama (May), Mexico (June), Uruguay (October) and Venezuela (date to be determined). In a stable system scenario, the current government will prevail in four of at least five of the elections.

This will create a situation in which changes in the political discourse of countries with elections will be insignificant, respectively, and the planning horizon will remain constant and predictable.

Countering brain drain and empowering youth agenda. In recent decades, the Latin American region has had a stable tendency to rejuvenate the population and saturate economic and political life. However, in the last few years, there has been an outflow of young personnel – both qualified and not qualified, and therefore, this potential is not fully used. First of all, migration pathways lead to the United States of America. Still, the latter returns the tendency to more rigid control of borders, which increases social tension and does not contribute to the long-term resolution of the situation.

The stable development scenario predicts that individual countries (first and foremost, economic leaders such as Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) will implement a number of employment reforms and direct state budgets for the creation of additional jobs.

MERCOSUR cooperative agenda. Against the background of active political processes in the countries of the region, Mercosur, as an economic block of countries in the region, has every opportunity to act as a unifying and stabilizing factor for the development of the region. Despite certain tendencies of decentralisation (expressed, for example, in the position of new President Argentina Havier Milei), the prospects for continuing negotiations with the European Union regarding the free trade zone and the potential of positive economic influence of association for the stable development of relations can play a positive role in the majority countries of the region.

With a stable scenario, the development of the regional system within Mercosur will continue to move towards rapprochement with the European Union. For the region, such a development of events will also become a stabilising factor in their relationship.

ORBITALLY-STABLE SYSTEM. LA NIÑA

Authoritarian persistence. The countries that will have elections during 2024 mostly expect victory of current political forces. But it is not a fact that it will bring predicted stability. The trend of democratic erosion persists under authoritarian leadership. Anticipating the upcoming presidential elections, El Salvador is poised to witness voters granting Nayib Bukele another term, notwithstanding the constitutional prohibition on re-election. Mr. Bukele is expected to secure a resounding victory, buoyed by voter approval for his authoritarian yet effective anti-crime measures.

Contrastingly, Venezuela faces a grim prospect of achieving a free and fair vote, even with recent sanctions relief from the US intended to level the electoral playing field. However, this relief is likely to be short-lived as Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, deviates from crucial aspects of the agreement. The leading opposition candidate remains disqualified from holding public office, a ban the Maduro regime is unwilling to lift. Despite the overall positive democratic landscape in much of Latin America, in 2024, the elections in Venezuela and El Salvador stand as cautionary narratives of democratic regression fuelled by voter disillusionment with traditional parties and politics in the region.

China competitiveness. Even though that, according to the experts surveyed, the Latin American region still retains the overwhelming commitment to the Western position, the increased influence of Chinese capital and the promotion of cultural diplomacy could not but reflect on the position of the region’s leaders. The presidency of Lula Da Silva, which began with increased attention to Beijing’s positions and the beginning of negotiations regarding the expansion of cooperation (in general – accelerating the flow of Chinese investments in the country), illustrates this trend. As shown in Southeast Asia and Africa, China’s cheap lending policy and broad investment inevitably lead to the intensification of pro-Chines

The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works.