Moscow is preparing the ground for further escalation against Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia will stop only at occupying the territories of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”, says Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”.
“It is clear that the West’s previous statements about possible sanctions in the event of Russian escalation against Ukraine were not strong enough to influence the Kremlin’s decision. So far, Moscow does not believe that the West is ready for enough strong and decisive actions,” Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, says.
“The deployment of the United Nations peacekeeping mission on the contact line between Ukrainian and Russian troops in the Donbas could prevent further Russia’s escalation. If Russia opposes such a mission, it will publicly acknowledge its unwillingness to de-escalate. Besides, the UN has procedure under which Russia, as a party to the conflict, may be deprived of its veto power on this issue,” he stresses.
Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” shows as well Russian next steps. More in the interview below.
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PolskieRadio24.pl: What does Putin decision concerning so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic” mean for Ukraine and the West?
Maksym Khylko, Russian and Belarusian Studies Program Director at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”:
By deciding to recognize the so-called “republics” in the Donbas, Putin, on the one hand, is raising stakes in strategic talks with the United States, showing that he is ready to use force to achieve his goals. On the other hand, Moscow is preparing the ground for further escalation against Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia will stop only at occupying the territories of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”.
What should be done by the West? How to help Ukraine and counter the security threats to all the region?
It is clear that the West’s previous statements about possible sanctions in the event of Russian escalation against Ukraine were not strong enough to influence the Kremlin’s decision. So far, Moscow does not believe that the West is ready for enough strong and decisive actions.
To help Ukraine and itself, the West must show real unity and convince Moscow that the losses from further escalation will far outweigh the possible gains. It is also necessary to make it clear to the Kremlin that Ukraine has inevitably become part of the West and there is no way back. In this regard, the immediate start of the procedure of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU can be a very strong signal.
The deployment of the United Nations peacekeeping mission on the contact line between Ukrainian and Russian troops in the Donbas could prevent further Russia’s escalation. If Russia opposes such a mission, it will publicly acknowledge its unwillingness to de-escalate. Besides, the UN has procedure under which Russia, as a party to the conflict, may be deprived of its veto power on this issue.
What are Putin’s further plans?
Most likely, Russia will continue to create false excuses in the Donbas for further escalation and occupation of more Ukrainian territories. At least, Russia will try to move the demarcation line further from the city of Donetsk, possibly to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia can do it quickly or slowly, applying the “salami tactics” and thus gradually increasing pressure on Kyiv to provoke the economic crisis and social-political destabilisation.
Putin and Lukashenka decided to leave the troops in Belarus. Can we imagine what for?
It was more Putin’s decision than Lukashenko’s. Surely, Lukashenko may be interested in keeping Russian troops in Belarus during a referendum on a new Belarusian constitution. But the main purpose of preserving Russian troops in Belarus is to create a military threat to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and thus to bind some of the Ukrainian troops involved in guarding the northern border.
How can we assess the risk of the Russian bigger invasion into Ukraine?
Local escalation in the Donbas is more likely than a full-scale war, although the risks of the latter remain. I think that the Kremlin is considering all possible options, and the decision will be made in accordance with the development of the situation and taking into account the response of the West and Ukraine.
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Ed. Agnieszka Marcela Kamńska, PolskieRadio24.pl