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Eastern European Futures: Four Scenarios for the Eastern Partnership 2030

In 2009, the European Union and six of its Eastern neighbours launched the Eastern Partnership (EaP) with the stated aim of “building a common area of shared democracy, prosperity, stability and increased cooperation.” A decade on, however, progress has been mixed.

Pragmatic Integration: Scenario 1 for Eastern Partnership 2030

Over the next ten years, in the absence of major political setbacks or security related turbulence, most of the countries of the Eastern Partnership will have a fairly good chance of success in their political association and economic integration with the EU.

Russian Hegemony Revisited: Scenario 2 for Eastern Partnership 2030

With the world economy keeping its demand for oil and gas high and lacklustre efforts to stimulate ‘green’ alternatives, Russia manages to advance some of its military and economic modernisation despite the continuation of the West’s sanctions regime.

EU Pivot to Moscow: Scenario 3 for the Eastern Partnership 2030

Recognising a rare window of opportunity, EU leaders embrace a revised approach to Russia in order to ease economic and political tensions and establish the ground for a new European security architecture.

Civic Emancipation: Scenario 4 for the Eastern Partnership 2030

The emancipatory power of civil society to define, defend and demand changes in society becomes a key future of the Eastern Partnership region.

Politics & Energy: Eastern Partnership Trends

For the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, stability requires a restoration of public trust, renewed civic engagement and returns from socio-economic reforms. This necessitates the strengthening of democratic institutions and countering corruption, based on linkage between democratisation and economic development.

Security: Eastern Partnership Trends

Despite three decades of independence, the Eastern Partnership countries are still plagued by insecurity, driven by political weakness due to authoritarian rule or incomplete democracy, external pressure, largely from Russia, and due to unresolved or frozen conflicts.

Society & Demography: Eastern Partnership Trends

By 2030, the Eastern Partnership countries are likely to be characterised by greater diversity in the area of demography and as a consequence the ‘human’ dimension of development.

Information & Digital: Eastern Partnership Trends

Strengthening information and digital security is important for the Eastern Partnership countries.

Economy & Technology: Eastern Partnership Trends

The Eastern Partnership has proven to be a viable initiative, providing the grounds for a beneficial dialogue, a boost in trade flows between the EU and the neighbouring countries and increasing the overall favourable opinion on the European Union in the six states.

EU & Environment: Eastern Partnership Trends

As a milestone for the EU’s Eastern Partnership programme, the upcoming EaP summit in May 2020 will be an opportunity for serious consideration of environmental challenges.

The “Frozen Conflict Perspective” in Eastern Ukraine and its Influence on Identity Construction

Although socially and politically constructed, the self-identification of the separatist regions in the east of Ukraine and their inhabitants can have a significant influence on the conflict resolution process. Through an analysis of identity construction in Donbas via the self-perceptions of residents of both the controlled and the uncontrolled territories, and their views regarding the […]

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