The analysis of trends and scenarios in the development of the international political situation in 2024, presented in this publication, was conducted by the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” in partnership with the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung in Ukraine upon the request of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
The research was carried out using elements of the TIA (trend impact analysis) and CIA (cross-impact analysis) methods by identifying trends, constructing scenarios, and considering them in the analysis of the prospects for developing the situation in areas of interest to Ukraine.
In the first stage, the research team evaluated five variables determined by the team’s executive decision in coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine:
The analysis considered events that would be significant for these five variables. An assessment was made of how the combination of events would influence the development of the situation within these variables. Factors shaping trends in the development of the situation within these variables were evaluated, both those influencing the situation in 2024 and those trend-setting for the next 3-5 years. The impact of each variable on global political and security situations was considered and verified within the interviews with the respective experts in Ukraine and abroad. As a result, three scenarios for the development of international political and economic situations were outlined:
- A scenario where the integration and stability of the international system is maintained, and confrontation among its actors weakens;
- A scenario where the turbulence in the international system does not reach extreme levels;
- A scenario where the disintegration of the international system and confrontational trends dominate, and the system becomes unstable.
The factor of how well these scenarios align with Ukraine’s interests was also taken into account.
In the final stage of the analysis, the research team applied variable analysis and developed scenarios to assess their impact on the following topics/areas relevant to Ukraine:
- Post-Russian international system,
- The new scenarios for the global security system,
- Existing alliances on the global geopolitical map,
- The place of Ukraine in the Global South issues (focusing on Latin America),
- Ukrainian toolkit for impacting the global processes.
The authors attempted to assess the likelihood of implementing the discussed scenarios and their impact on ensuring Ukraine’s national interests and the development of the situation in the respective directions.
The results of this analysis can be utilized for developing practical actions and shaping policies in specific areas of Ukraine’s foreign policy, as well as for further expert forecasting activities.
The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works.